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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    06z euro did improve some over 00z. Sharper with the main trough and gets some light precip up into NNE now which suggests some weak ML forcing getting further NW.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I think we’ll need to see some other guidance like the euro moving NW by 00z tonight. That’s when the first piece of crucial energy comes onshore in BC.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. That’s what I’ll be watching for.
  5. ORH_wxman
    EPS is really hammering the EPIC-looking negative PNA mid-month. It just torches the central and eastern US because that PNA trough out west goes so deep into southern latitudes.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I’m giving this another 24-36 hours to see how much north it jumps. Once inside of 72 hours we should narrow the goalposts quite a bit but this is typically the time range when we see some of these things start to trend pretty hard. We didn’t see it much at 12z today.
  7. ORH_wxman
    YEah it does look a bit better than 00z. I was expecting a bit more of a jump but there’s an awful lot of time still considering there isn’t any blocking going on.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Euro is still a nice little snow event but surprised it wasn’t more beefed up. I still think it’s going to come north at some point. Hard to remember sometimes this is over 100 hours out still.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Man the euro is flat as a pancake next week.
  10. ORH_wxman
    That entire sounding is below freezing.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It’s not a ZR sounding over this way really maybe until the end. Maybe a little further southwest its more. It’s mostly heavy snow to some sleet maybe ending as FZDZ
  12. ORH_wxman
    Maybe his tropical microclimate only got down to 35.
  13. ORH_wxman
    That would be actually be a really good solution for SNE. I’m still very leery about this charging north in the next 2-4 cycles once inside 96 hours. Its possible it stays more weak/flat, but I’m of the mind that ptype issues are a larger concern than a whiff.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Fast flow with no blocking is hard to get double digit totals. It can happen but it’s thread the needle. Advisory to low end warning much easier to obtain in fast flow.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Nobody should be expecting a foot from this thing. Everything would have to go perfect.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yep it’s going to come back north. Even the crushed solutions show how much WAA is still happening with not very amplified energy.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Helped us last year in February.
  18. ORH_wxman
    A typical banana high classic for locking in cold to the coastline is an arc from N of Maine to the Great Lakes region.....not from N Maine to the Atlantic....the latter configuration will still lock in the CAD over the interior, but it will definitely set up a CF somewhere near or west of 128/95 and allow marine air to infiltrate a chunk of the CP.
  19. ORH_wxman
  20. ORH_wxman
    The pattern in clown range is totally different than 12 hours ago. Popping a temporary EPO ridge and flooding the CONUS with arctic air.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that ain't happening with that sfc low track.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I love how embedded the N trend is in everyone's head for these events.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City.
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