ORH_wxman

Finally got a little gust that caused some damage

This is really lame. Not much up on the hill here either for wind. It’s now or never for gusts....really between now and 3-4pm. We’re seeing temps/dews rise a bit into the low 70s so that may try to help the good 925 winds mix down, but the clock is ticking.

Hard to say, the center is kind of broad. It certainly came close enough to say it basically crossed BID.

Almost looks like there are two centers, lol...Looks like low level circulation there coming onshore east of WST and then another near GON

Looks like the center is just N of BID but still offshore the mainland.

Looks like BID might be getting grazed by the west side of the center.

Yeah 40-50 will bring down a decent number of limbs with the wet foliage all over them. A few trees being uprooted with the soggy ground are likely too. I'm just hoping to keep power, but the grid on this hill is about as good as the CT grid.

I'm thinking like 40-50mph gusts here. Best window looks like about noontime to 3ish. That's when the best combo of LLJ and weak inversion trying to break occur. Can't rule out some higher gusts if we get a good squall to mix the winds down, but I don't think 60+ would be widespread around here.

The light inversion def might be a problem to the NW of the track getting some better winds. NAM actually probably has the best winds starting in the MVY area and then slowly working NW (while also weakening) through SE MA and adjacent RI because the inversion mixes out there.

Looks like the center might just barely go east of BID. It’s gonna be close

I think EWB over to UUU and maybe Kingston RI need to watch for a period of big winds....that’s likely the prime spot with landfall looking likely in RI somewhere.

I might get some decent winds here. We’re kind of exposed to south winds on this hill and the track up through RI and then NE CT could put the best stretch of winds up through Narragansett bay and into interior E MA.

They still have some decent spread which shows the uncertainty even at 24-36h.

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI. SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go.

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

There will be a risk...good low level shear. But with the wind field kind of meh, it is probably mostly like weak EF0 spin-ups. We don’t have like 100-120 knots just off the deck to tap into like we might in a stronger system. Still gotta watch though. Even weak ones will be damaging...esp with recent rains.

Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach.

Gem was basically the same as 00z. Maybe just a hair east. BID/WST/GON zone is where I’m zoning in in LF. If I was making a 2 sigma confidence interval though I’d prob go HVN/BDR to like Buzzards bay.

This is true. Our grid sucks where I am currently.....but CT seems on another scale up though. We saw the massive contrast in both Irene and the Oct 2011 storms too...like towns right next to each other on the border...the MA side would only have scattered outages and the CT side would be like 90-100% out.

Yeah I’m leaning BID right now into WST or GON.

NHC will have to shift track east I think unless we see a big shift back on the 12z run.

You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening.

Looks like the 06z euro tickled a little east. It’s actually pretty similar position as 00z at 12z Sunday morning just off the south fork of LI but the 06z run brings it more due north into ginxy’s hood rather than sharply NW into northwestern CT by 18z Sunday like the 00z run did.

Landfall as a weak cat 1 might be a tall task. Strong cat 1 by the time it comes ashore seems very unlikely. We’d prob need very rapid intensification today up to like cat 2 if we wanted to entertain a landfall as a high end cat 1. The storm is going to weaken between peak intensity and landfall.

Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast.