ORH_wxman

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin. Here is the loop: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

Prob Nov 16, 2002. That was actually a pretty big ice storm for the elevations of N CT and far S MA. We had some ZR in ORH but a lot of sleet too so it wasn't as icy as just a bit south.

I remember going outside on Winter Hill during that one and seeing it immediately when I went outside. Didn't even have to wait for my eyes to adjust to the dark.

You already know this....but for those that don't: Unfortunately very rare in New England....you almost need one of those "due south wind" type events where everything is eroding but someone like Chris up in Greenfield rots at 30F for several hours with ZR and a place like ORH is 40F. But usually those type of events are very transitory....the ZR changes to rain within a few hours. The longer duration ZR events up here all require strong ageostrophic northerly flow and usually that means it's going to be strong through the lower 2000-2500 feet in the atmosphere, so we end up with higher elevations actually doing better until you reach like 2500-3000 feet or so when the temp starts rising again.

Really heavy frost here.

6 hourly shows 32

I think it’s 11/12/77. Maybe the 13th. Can’t remember now. The weaseled a 32 on the nose last night so this year won’t break that record. ORH is running a bit warm right now too.

You had like 15-18" in 3/13/18

Maybe the tip of Cape Ann isn't. But most of it would be in the 50 zone. They can be kind of boom or bust there. There's also no way you didn't break 30" in 2017-2018. The 1/4/18 and 3/13/18 events alone almost get you there....then add events like Xmas 2017, Feb 17-18, Mar 7-8 and then other random 2-4" type events

I'd prob draw SNE to look more like this (I rushed this just now, so I didn't put in as many obsessive details as usual)

Yeah it's all bogus north of BOS....those north shore towns should be over 50....unless maybe you are literally out in the ocean like the tip of Cape Ann or maybe some of those communities near Marblehead. The 75+ should also extend down to far NW CT in Litchfield county and you could prob put a 100-spot or two in the northern Berkshires on the crest there over 2000-2500 feet.

Also the sub-25 zone on the Cape is fake. The only place that may come close to not averaging 25" in SNE is near GON....but even there is suspect for 1991-2020 since that region had a really good run recently.

Agreed....the 75" should come down to almost ORH airport (they were 72.8" on the latest 1991-2020 avg) along the spine there in Princeton/Rutland. Also, prob shouldn't have that sub-50" zone in 495...that is totally fake. Prob a bad coop or two affecting that plot in there.

Can see the signs of change near the end of the EPS for later in the month, we'll have to see how this tracks....whether it starts amplifying or getting pushed back some. Often, a pattern change can be rushed a bit by guidance so we'll see.

March really throws it off...but most of us in New England already know that March is a big part of our snow climo. Those 1991-2020 April numbers almost certainly too low too since they aren't including April 1996 and 1997 (both over 20") as those were part of the ASOS blackout years.

ORH 1991-2020 averages: Oct: 1.1" Nov: 1.9" Dec: 14.9" Jan: 18.2" Feb: 21.1" Mar: 13.7" Apr: 1.9" Total: 72.8" DJF: 54.2"

There's a weak inverted trough trying to set up for Thursday night, so it's possible some folks could see their first flakes if there's enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some flurries or a snow shower. Other than that, pretty boring through mid-month, gets mild again before perhaps a change in the final 1-2 weeks of the month. Ensembles and the weeklies still showing this.

BOS went back to being biased warm in their ASOS. Not sure what the issue is. ORH would prob be closer to 5th if the siting didn’t change in 1948. Several of the warmer autumns were at the old site which was warmer than the airport.

MQE - #4 ORH - #9 PVD - #2 BDL - #6 BDR - #2

Probably a question of semantics....if we have a similar autumn, to say, 1971....but we end up like 0.3F warmer or something....I would classify it as correct to say "we've had autumns like this before".....if the record is smashed by like 2 degrees, then that would be a more dubious statement. FWIW, only BOS out of the first-order stations in SNE is currently having their warmest autumn on record...and their temps are running a bit "questionable".

Yeah the shortwave gets pinched off from the northern stream which allows the cold to moderate faster. But this is still 7 days out. I recall models doing something similar with 11/15/18 too in the medium range.

It’s a little warm but close enough to keep an eye on

You got the years correct but that is 4 seasons in a row. ORH has never previously even done 3 in a row and of course as I become a young snow weenie, that’s what I get greeted with.

You are thinking of 11/19/86 I think. But there were events on both 11/11/86 and 11/11-12/87...butt he fast moving nature of the storm with intense rates pre-dawn matches the 11/19/86 storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us1119.php#picture

Yeah but that is an El Niño pacific there which makes me skeptical. There’s a huge Aleutian low where normally in La Niña we see a high/ridge there. The key in La Niña is to get the ridge poleward so it’s shooting up into AK/Bering Strait.