ORH_wxman

TPV lurking though...noticed the heights are a little lower to the northeast in Quebec/Labarador....but yeah, the trough west looks more amped. Hopefully that sticks.

It is the manner in which it achieves the BM position that is causing the eastward look to the precip compared to a more conventional storm.....typically storms move northeast or ENE to the BM....but this one is kind of taking a wider turn to the right and then hooking north....when it does that, the heavier WCB precip is not going to get western areas as much...it comes up through the Cape and eastern areas first and then you have to wait until the CCB backs in from the E or SE. The compactness of this storm will definitely be somethign to watch....if it's a bit wider circulation, then you will do fine with a BM track...but if it implodes a bit toward the center, then we could see an annoying dropoff in totals west of roughly ORH-IJD.

You are just NW of me (I'm near the Hopkinton/Holliston line)....your fate will be very similar to mine...so you can just wait until I get worried if you need a proxy for how good it looks there. And right now, we look very good. We are potential jackpot candidates.

GFS is a massive torch cutter....hopefully that mutes some. 12z GGEM looks more overrunning (can only see out to 144h though right now)

Works for me.

No you are probably remember March 2018....there was the March 7-8, 2018 storm that was a huge paste bomb for a bunch of SNE and then Mar 13, 2018 was the monster that crushed eastern areas....but it did have a weenie band in far western CT/MA too.

Yeah they were literally sitting on the outer cape.

Yes agreed and not all the guidance agrees on how compact it is either. My gut says you get a solid storm out there, but obviously it's going to be living on the edge during these runs.

GGEM ticked east....kind of like RGEM did. Monster hit for eastern areas seems locked in...but the western areas is where this matters.

No it's definitely west...it's also a little slower too.

I think it was the March 2017 storm where the GFS took until like 24 or 30 hours out to finally cave...it kept tracking it over the BM while the Euro and other guidance were huggers.

It's west of 06z but it won't be a huge weenie solution.

You still trying to fly into BOS at 1pm Saturday?

On the NAM, they kind of fujiwara'd and congealed back into one in the stall position which is why the solution was so weenie-ish.

Trifecta (PV, northern stream and southern stream) looks better already on GFS through 24 hours....we'll see what fly shows up in the ointment later, but so far I'd expect it west of 06z

ICON came west, if we even care (most of us don't)

Yeah Reggie closes off just a little later/elongated, but it's a minor detail....it maybe just makes the difference between someone getting a 30 burger in banding vs 24. These minor nuances are going to happen between now and go-time....but the larger picture with the shortwaves is very good on these 12z runs so far.

Yep, Reggie tickled east.

But it will nail the convective cell over Dubuque Iowa....no need to have any skill on east coast cyclogenesis.

Stalls it south of the islands like the 12km...but it's definitely more compact...doesn't spread the heavier stuff very well to W SNE. Sharper cutoff.

Good run for the queens

That said, this run is still going to drop a 30-burger....lol. If you are capturing the low down south of the islands, it's going to be obscene.

This run would still be historic...it gets captured....just maybe not quite as obscene as 06z was. But these imperfections are expected...there's a reason 30-burgers are hard to get.

Dual low...won't be as ridiculous as 06z because of that I don't think

Doesn't look like that will happen this time...the PV problem usually shows up by 18z Fri to 00z Sat....but that isn't happening this time.