ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.
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If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"
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You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.
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The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast.
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This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.
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Yeah what an awesome looks. My only mild concern still is that elongated structure. Even euro still hints at it but manages to keep things consolidated enough…but if it was a little less consolidated then you could envision a tamer solution. It’s not the biggest deal but it would probably lessen the coverage of 2+ foot amounts. You’d see a lot more 15-20 type amounts.
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06z GFS did also to a lesser extent.
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His standard for returning is pretty high though. It’s possible his area in RI gets more like 18” and he would have to drive like 7 hours from BUF after flying across country. That’s a huge commitment.
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Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east.
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This is a pretty solid meltdown even by Ray’s standards
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Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:
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Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless.
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Lol true…but I kind of equate JMA to the super weenies who call for very storm to be a HECS….the JMA never saw a storm it didn’t like.
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Euro has been pretty gung ho most of the way…it’s had a few runs where it tried to slide a little east but it never went where so many other models went. It often was all alone too….so I think assuming we’re getting close to a final solution here, the Euro is going to take home a much needed W. NAM may have been the first model to show some of the most ridiculous solutions though. But we can’t ignore that 18z whiff yesterday.
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Reminds me of some of the Feb 2013 output. When it verified in real time, it was like 1-2” per hour over a huge area with embedded bands of 3-5” per hour. You were “getting screwed” at 1-2” per hour. It’s just a wall of precip.
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Yeah now that we’re all honking, this would be a classic time for the Euro drop a turd in the punchbowl with one of those strung out convective lows.
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Back when the servers were more iffy, threads that had over 50 or 100 pages started to strain them so we would close them and start new ones. I recall some events having 4 or 5 threads leading into it.
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Blue Hill actually has the highest for a first order station in SNE with 38.7 in the Feb 1969 storm. 34.5” at ORH in Jan 2015 is the 2nd highest for a first order station. I think their 33.0” in Apr 1997 is 3rd.
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It wouldn’t be a big dog if the GFS wasn’t rapidly caving inside 48h.
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Yeah I mean, if the upside wasn’t so high, I’d prob take 8” and run but when we have 24-30 as realistic upside, I’m gonna gamble.
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I’d prob roll the dice at this point inside of 495 instead of signing on the dotted line for 8-9 inches.
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Easy forecast for the south shore and Cape at least.
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Not the NMB, lol http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html
