ORH_wxman

Yeah once you dryslot above 700mb, it gets difficult to maintain heavy rates. We saw the snow continue most of yesterday but the truly heavy stuff down in SNE and S NH shut off late morning once the 500-700 layer dryslot punched through. Probably a good nugget to keep in the back of our minds on the next one.

I think you need to use standard deviation to really determine ratter status. Some places hardly ever get under 50% of their average. ORH hasn’t had a winter below 50% of their average since 1999-2000 when they had 30.2”. But years like 2001-2002, 2011-2012, and 2015-2016 all had in the 40s and I’d consider them ratters.

ORH had 0.95” (but 8.2” of snow so it was dense) but that’s the closest I found to an inch for first order sites. Didn’t see cocorahs down here yet. But yeah, this was a little underperforming on the QPF. I was pretty sure there would be a stripe of 12-15” amounts from this but I was wrong. I figured as the strong ML warm front slowed and then slid east, someone on the north side of that would just get croaked but it seems like it just couldn’t maintain intensity as it did that. We’ve seen these types of 12”+ amounts previously when you get the whole thing slowing and then sliding east (2/5/14 or 12/19/08).

Yeah you’d prob need like a moderate storm of 6-10” and then cash in on a big dog of 12-18”+. Maybe another smaller nuisance event or two mixed in there somewhere before mid-April and there’s your 30”+ to get you to normal.

The 1980s were very anomalous when it comes to snow in New England. It’s not a great baseline to use.

About 9.5” total. Depth currently a little over 8” as the stuff from earlier this morning settled a bit.

The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B.

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so. Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

Euro lost them...GFS/GGEM/Ukie still have at least one of them. Ukie still has both, GFS likes 3/1 while GGEM likes 3/3.

NAM and esp 3km NAM at 18z have another round between 6-8pm hitting eastern MA/SE NH....but HRRR and RAP not as excited....more like a flurries on the latter while the 3km NAM probably has another inch or so from that. So some discrepancy on the short term guidance for later...we'll just have to watch.

You're telling me that George had inflated expectations on a storm? Hard to believe.....

Models did bad with the CF....never got here even though most of them pushed it like 10 miles west of me. Swinging back east faster too than most guidance had it. Legit flash freeze potential near the coast where it got to 33-34F for several hours.

What did you have in the 1/7 storm? I probably have a but more than you because of that one storm. I had like a 10-11" of fluff in that one.

I may crack 10" if this can keep up for a few hours. Already over 8".

This is pretty nice actually...surprised how low the vis got. Gotta be moderate at least now. How much did you get so far? I had near 8" but my buddy just north said he only had 7ish.

Actual good dendrites now in this stuff...best snow growth since earlier when we were ripping north of the sleet line

Honestly, the RGEM was probably the most accurate model down in SNE once inside 36 hours....it had the sleet line straddling the MA/CT border for several hours during the heaviest precip on like 3 different runs which is exactly what happened this morning. NAM was too warm with that battle going on more like between the pike and rt 2.

I should probably preface the claim with "meaningful precip".....stuff that's like 10dbz echoes will prob have some pingers in there because its shallow lift. I did have some pingers too with decent echoes for like 30 minutes, but then since then, it's been snow any time the echoes are more than about 15 dbz...when they fall below that, it's a mix of light snizzle/pixie dust/pingers.

NAM was awful beyond 36 hours (I think it had a couple runs punching so much sleet north that it gave Ray like 3-4"), but it was pretty good once we got down to like the final 3 or 4 runs. It was a little too warm in MA but overall it was much better down in CT/RI/SE MA than other guidance.

Seems like the sleet never made it past the pike save for a brief time when the mid-level dryslot hit. These echoes filling back in are all snow.

Just cleaned driveway. Snow got pretty dense..esp the stuff near the top where it started mixing. Looks like radar filling back in. Starting to get some steadier flakes again

8” or so thus far

Hard to say....we had a period of pingers when precip lightened up about 30 min ago....they are actually still mixed in right now but it's trying to go back to snow right now as the heavier echoes move back in. We were getting absolutely lit up though for a couple hours between about 730-930....like 2" per hour stuff.

It's pretty close to me right now....about 5 miles east.

Yeah the soundings show that....we'll see if it pans out, but this kind of looks like the "puffy hooked dendrites at 1.5 mile vis" that can add up to an inch or two over 3 hours. I remember these types of "toppers" happening a few times during that Jan-Feb 1994 run of overrunning events. We'd be outside finishing up shoveling and we'd get a little fluffer topper while that was going on Here's the RAP sounding for your 'hood at 6pm this evening....you can see that trapped saturated layer under the inversion and the omega bars on the left lining up with that -10C to -12C layer near the top of the saturated layer. That could produce some cotton balls later.