ORH_wxman

8” or so thus far

Hard to say....we had a period of pingers when precip lightened up about 30 min ago....they are actually still mixed in right now but it's trying to go back to snow right now as the heavier echoes move back in. We were getting absolutely lit up though for a couple hours between about 730-930....like 2" per hour stuff.

It's pretty close to me right now....about 5 miles east.

Yeah the soundings show that....we'll see if it pans out, but this kind of looks like the "puffy hooked dendrites at 1.5 mile vis" that can add up to an inch or two over 3 hours. I remember these types of "toppers" happening a few times during that Jan-Feb 1994 run of overrunning events. We'd be outside finishing up shoveling and we'd get a little fluffer topper while that was going on Here's the RAP sounding for your 'hood at 6pm this evening....you can see that trapped saturated layer under the inversion and the omega bars on the left lining up with that -10C to -12C layer near the top of the saturated layer. That could produce some cotton balls later.

Flipping back to snow here as these better echoes move in

We have pingers too now under the light echoes....It'll be interesting to see if we flip back to snow when those heavier echoes out west move in.

Prob not much, but there's a chance we could get 1-2" of fluff. The lift is low around 800mb, but it actually lines up well with the lower part of the SGZ....temps are like -11C at 800mb where the lift is centered. So an inch or two of blower fluff wouldn't be that surprising.

I had to sneak one in there. Hopefully you get something later this afternoon to top it off.

Glad we don't live there...

Sleet straddling the southern MA border right now:

Absolute crushing right now Looks like sleet line is near MA/CT border but bends further south in RI and SE MA

Bent back WF FTW here right now. This is really heavy stuff. Prob 2” per hour.

Sleet making a bit more of a push now further west near BDL

Yeah probably huge aggies.

Compromise was the way to go. RGEM’s last few runs actually might end up close. It had a very strong gradient near the MA/CT border.

He bought ginxy’s old camera at a garage sale.

Eyeballing 5” or so. But haven’t measured yet. Getting absolutely crushed right now. Very low vis. Prob 1/8 to 1/16 mile. It’s interesting that the sleet line is actually a bit south of the initial yellow echoes

Sleet line is kind of stalled right now. Latest HRRR actually only brings it up to about the southern MA border between now and 15z.

Snow growth here is actually pretty awesome.

Absolutely ripping here Sleet line currently from about Kevin to Taunton

Mar 3 is a threat. Doesn’t look huge right now but it wouldn’t take a huge change to turn that more from a clipper into a Miller B. Dont sell Mar 1 either.

Pretty confident BOS-ORH see solid warning snow....they should rip north of the 850 WF early tomorrow....prob several hours of 1-2" per hour stuff. Main question for them in my mind is can they get 10-12" or is it more like 7-8". HFD-PVD-TAN is a much tougher call...they could get a lot of IP during the heaviest stuff, but if it can stay snow for a couple extra hours during it, that could add 3 or 4 inches to the total.

I'm not disputing your forecast....I think you may get warning snows....I was just curious why you all of the sudden do not think the NAM is valid there....esp since for CT, it has a little more support now. Sounds like you answered the question already, but aside from being out of the RAP range, those things were all true yesterday and the day before too.

Nope....where did I pimp it? Link me the post. However, for your 'hood, RGEM and now the 18z GFS are not giving you warning snows (well 18z GFS is really close, you're on the line). So it's not just the NAM there.