ORH_wxman

Went back to a really far north vort track at 06z after starting to come in line with other guidance at 00z.

Ukie is frigid. Tries to keep it all snow for a chunk of CT too. 00z guidance definitely playing the confluence harder this cycle.

I feel like these are almost always dense baking powder. 12/16/07 was maybe an exception for 2 hours in the middle of it which helped with the positive bust (not totally because of ratios but busting through the DGZ helped cool the column better too) but even that one was sandwiched by dry cement on each side of it.

That was a pretty cold rgem run considering 18z was pretty torchy.

Yeah euro ticked north but very small tick. Still really cold. I don’t expect it to verify.

Yep I expect sleet right up to Ray even…but I think there will be a big thump before that. Bent back WFs usually produce well.

I remember he was grouchy when ORH-BOS was getting crushed in that event but he didn’t absolutely lose it until Mattmfm posted from Providence that he was getting heavy snow while Tolland was getting Scalped. He went nuclear when that happened. Then Ekster posts from SE MA that it’s ripping at 2” per hour and I think he logged off for a couple hours. That might have been the first event he broke some stuff in the basement.

Which location do you think has a higher chance for warning snowfall (more than 6”)? Boston or Tolland?

I’ve been expecting sleet here for days. Haven’t you read any of my posts on this?

This has been his MO in SWFEs since 2007-2008. He cannot stand it when BOS or Scooter are ripping heavy snow while he’s pelting so he tries to lump everyone in together by saying sleet gets to S NH while ignoring that it may snow heavily for 3 or 4 extra hours in BOS which would make their snowfall forecast different than Tolland.

Absolutely classic Kevin in a SWFE. Only thing left is to try and lump Ray in with Tolland. I suspect you’ll do that in the next 24-36 hours.

Yeah southern CT could def get some ZR. There’s almost zero chance the secondary tracks north of there so it’s going to stay freezing/frozen.

He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there.

Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today.

Yeah I could see that but likely not enough to cause a significant decrease in accumulations. The more important line is where the sleet happens during several hours of the heaviest precip.

No, a lot of times it's they have the same track but mesos are sniffing out a strong warm layer that globals aren't. This is a little different. This is akin to a meso model having a coastal further NW while globals are SE....sometimes the mesos win that battle but there's plenty of times they don't. This is a SE ridge SWFE, so I can definitely see this trending N. But it doesn't have to. There's strong confluence in Quebec which could easily cause a trend back S a bit. This isn't a retreating high situation which often happens in SWFEs. So while I lean N trend with a jackpot in southern to central NH, it's not a confident forecast.

Yeah I think some are having trouble not conflating the two. I wouldn't be surprised if the mesos score a coup on the synoptics because this is a juiced southern stream shortwave coming out of the southern US.....but that is less of a "lock" than them having a mid-level warm tongue on the same track as globals and not losing it.

18z Reggie is similar to the NAM vort track...pretty far north across Lake Ontario. Something to watch to see if global models want to follow suit or if those meso models sink back south into the BUF-BGM corridor.

I agree with this....this is why I was saying earlier that even in some of these events that jackpotted SNE or southern CNE, NNE still got 8-10" of synoptic snow. It's usually aided by some ratios, but that is going to be typical when you have the colder profile and are using the 600-700mb fronto.

IF the Euro is correct on the placement of the ML warm front and thermal fields, then it would be pretty accurate....though I might bump it just a shade north (often QPF is a little too heavy near the low level forcing and not heavy enough to the north of the ML WF)....but I also think the Euro might be a little too far south overall. It's the furthest south of guidance at 12z. There isn't a lot of spread though unless we believe the NAM. All the other models are pretty darned close....like within 25 miles of eachother.

Yeah it goes right down 495 (north of pike) toward ORH and back to N ORH county. Those areas are well below normal for snowfall to date.

At least that was one benefit of being a meteorologist and a dad at the same time....knowing that Xmas day was porked for trying out new sleds. What are your thoughts on this one over performing? I kind of like someone to score a 12-15 spot where the quasi-stationary banding forms just north of the ML warm front at the same time it is running into a lot of resistance (i.e. stalling or slowing for several hours)...so a little higher than a typical SWFE jackpot zone. My thoughts have been near the MA/NH border for that to happen...maybe pike region gets in on the southern part of that jackpot zone....maybe extends up into S ME on the northern side...hard to pinpoint just yet.

To be fair, just counting AN and BN seasons doesn't do it justice....at least for ORH. The BN seasons are not nearly as far below normal as the AN seasons are above normal. ORH has had 7 seasons at least 25" above normal since 2000 while they have only 3 that are at least 25" below normal. So it's basically been more than a 2 to 1 ratio of blockbusters to true ratters.

It could come back, but not a single model has it now. So keep pimping at your own peril.

ORH has had 10 below normal....the only differences from Ray's list was ORH was AN in 2020-2021 and 2016-2017.