ORH_wxman

18z euro got more interesting. Here’s 90 hours (doesn’t go out any further on off-hour runs)….it’s already below freezing down to the pike at this point away from the coast…but that’s an awful lot of energy lagging back

Longwave pattern is really just showing where the general above normal and below normal heights are. We cannot discern from those maps how individual shortwaves will behave. So we typically like seeing ridging out west and into AK and troughing in the east…or ridging over Greenland/NAO region. You can see from the map that Brooklynwx99 posted, the height pattern is quite favorable for us. We like that look for trying to get snow events in here. We know this because of past years with similar looks and they tend to produce more often than not. But as we learned in December, there’s no guarantees.

Yes. It has always been like that. I was just chuckling at the sentiment that the pattern was being kicked down the road or that it never developed.

The funny part is we got the huge blocking to verify…but as some of us said before that pattern, nobody cares about longwave patterns in here, they care of it delivers snow or not. The pattern can set up like models showed but if the big snowstorm doesn’t happen, it’s irrelevant.

OP run is split flow but there’s a risk that some of the mildness could come in from over the top a bit which is what it’s trying to do. It doesn’t really change what we’ve been looking at beyond that though.

EPS got quite a bit snowier in CNE than 00z for Thursday/Friday.

It’s good that pretty much all guidance has been trending toward that lagging wave. Whether or not it ultimately succeeds is obviously still up in the air but we’re getting a mix of some actual hits and close calls on the guidance which is fine for 5 days out on a system that isn’t even occurring in a favorable larger scale pattern. We’re trying to “steal” this event before things look more favorable toward mid-month.

Yeah…relatively speaking. In an absolute sense it wasn’t all that crazy. It was just a more defined coastal with a CCB over New England.

Nah I doubt it. High position is totally different so it won’t be this weird coastal front back over Fitchburg like in the 12/16 event.

Uncle on a bender again at 12z

Close though. Seems like it invests a little too much in the lead wave. But even that one looks icy over interior SNE N of pike and snowy for CNE/NNE

Here comes the GFS

EPS wasn’t too enthusiastic about 1/6, but it wasn’t awful either. Hopefully we get an improvement today on 12z. EPS are still showing a great pattern though in the 11-15 like yesterday so that is 2 runs in a row where it went the GEFS route of a much better looking pacific.

Crazy uncle gone wild

GFS coming in better than 18z for next Friday.

As long as the poster is not here in bad faith, we allow and we laugh.

1/9 is kind of a weak signal but it’s there. The strongest sig right now is actually around 1/12.

Why? Without The Pope, this place just wouldn’t be the same.

Yeah it was close enough for 6 days out anyway. We got some improvements today on most guidance to keep that threat in the game….now we need to keep driving the football. Can’t really have any major setbacks. Would be nice to steal that event out of a crap pattern. Get some momentum heading into a more favorable regime.

GFS a bit too suppressed at 18z for next Friday.

We already have you marked down as calling for a 2015 repeat stretch. We’ll grade you on that call in 4 weeks.

I’d like to see a few more runs of EPS show this before getting too excited…and obviously the real key is how the geese behave in the next week. I’ll be watching the local parks carefully and you should too.

That was a nice start at least. First run where EPS made a significant move toward GEFS in the 11-15. That monster PNA ridge with split flow is a really nice look. Fingers crossed it happens.

This has been lurking on some guidance too. The larger teleconnection sig is around 1/12 or so. Tip has commented on it but it would be great to sneak and event or two in earlier.

Euro is intriguing