ORH_wxman

Yeah the mid-90s broke the crap streak but we were still living off the experience of the previous years so for a while, those 6-10" type maps would still be really exciting....I feel like once we got done with April '97, there had been enough big dogs that the moderate storms stopped being as much of a high. It takes a few years to get your priors updated.

The period betwen 1955-56 and 1971-72 for ORH is unmatched....not a single ratter for 17 consecutive seasons. That's where I had to hear all the "not like they used to be" crap from....but they were right, it was an insane stretch. The 1930s-early 1950s were sneaky awful, but nobody cares about those years.... great depression and WWII were going on, lol.

We got back to back snow events in January 1991 I remember....the first one was 2" and the second was like 7 or 8 inches.....and the snow stuck around for about 2 weeks before melting. We were literally outside sledding, doing snowball fights, etc for those 2 weeks. I remember thinking "This is what winter is supposed to be like"....just seeing snow fall onto top of existing snowpack was alien to me. It was like I discovered fire for the first time.

3-6" was "exciting" but anything over 6" was like how we would react to 15"+ nowadays. If 6" was your lower range back then, you were literally doing backflips off the couch.

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

Yep....that's all we heard as kids. "we don't get the big ones like when I was younger....we used to get blizzards where the piles would be over your head in the driveway, not just the supermarket parking lots!". After a while, I assumed they were exaggerating....like I figured they were snowier than the dogshit winters we were getting at the time, but not to the degree they were telling us. Then finally '92-'93 happened to end the streak and I also started reading more about local weather history as I got into middle school/high school and finally realized just how horrific those late '80s/early 90s winters were relative to all the other years.

Too bad we couldn't hold that high for Saturday night....we'd prob see some insane readings. But this whole thing sped up about 6-10 hours from a few days ago. We might get to see some spots in upstate NY like SLK go lunar though friday night.

It is still mind-blowing to me (I wouldn't believe it if I didn't personally experience every minute of it) that ORH went 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snow event from '88-'89 through '91-'92....I wonder what the return rate on that one is.

Yeah there's been some scooter high looks on various runs on that system....hopefully we can cash that one in. Not a ton of antecedent cold though (what else is new this winter)....but it's more than enough if you get the high in a decent spot.

12z Euro actually trended colder again after less at 00z.

I think it's just more ensemble members "Seeing" the 2/10-12 signal....the trough doesn't last though as SE ridge builds back quickly after that. But you can see that EPO ridge north of AK and it stays there....so that's one reason that February might have a sporadic cold shot or two mixed in with the mildness....we didn't have that look in January.

I think there's probably plenty of people (not even just weather enthusiasts) that became used to the higher snow winters of the 2000s/2010s not realizing that those are somewhat anomalous in the longer record. There's other periods that are fairly prolific, but once again, they aren't the norm, they are outlier periods and they are often preceded or followed by some crappy stretches (think 1940s/early 1950s or 1980s/early 1990s) Like I often have to tell people that BOS 48.2" snowfall average is not totally representative of the longer climate record. Snowfall isn't quite like temps....we get a monster sample of temperatures every year, but we do not get a big sample of snowfalls, so 30 years is pretty precarious to base a snowfall climo on.

Even the cold shots are timed surgically to maximize daily departures.

It’s possible but unlikely imho. I think out of the major NWS BOX New England sites, PVD would have the best shot at a top 5 futility. They are currently sitting at 4.9 inches and would need to finish under 11.8 to get a top 5 futility badge. If we go south and include BDR, they would have the best shot. They are sitting at 0.8” and they need to finish below 9.3” for a top 5 futile season.

We’re kind of almost getting there. I guess 2020-2021 interrupted the below normal streak here but other than that year, it’s been pretty shitty since 2017-18. I guess 2018-19 wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good either. Esp with Dec 2018 being an epic turd for snowfall.

It’s going to be funny if next season is even average snow…a lot of people are going to feel like it’s an abnormally snowy winter if that happens. Same with temps.

Even up here in the interior, almost all my snow has fallen at marginal temps. It’s been insane…feels like Virginia Beach. I think the only event over an inch that fell with cold temps (like below 30F) was the 12/11 system.

Clown range EPS has potential for one of those February 60+ or even 70+ torches on that look. Let’s get that in here if it’s not gonna snow….then get a big dog as we go into march and then call it a winter.

If we go through February snowless, then the futility records would get somewhat interesting but otherwise it’s not very compelling at the moment.

0.3

ORH is 21.2 for lowest all time. They are currently at 17.5” so it’s extremely unlikely they break the record. They’d have to set a new record for least snowfall beyond Feb 1st to get it. BDL was at 9.4” coming into today and their record is 14.7”…so unlikely for them too but more plausible than ORH.

2018 did have a warning event mid month right before the furnace. We’ll see if we grab one this year but this is feeling like a warmer version of 88-89. Hedge against snow even if there’s windows of opportunity.

We’ve reduced ourselves to rooting for extremely uncomfortably frigid weather this winter.

Doesnt seem like the euro is backing off compared to 00z. Actually looked a bit further south with the cold.

There’s been a lot of scooter highs in clown range the past few runs. It kind of fits the pattern though…I know it’s popular in here right now to forecast non-stop warmth for February but it’s really hard to get all-out furnaces when you still have some cross polar flow into Canada. Its the type of pattern that will be mild in the mean, but there could be bouts of colder intrusion. We’ll see though….maybe the cross polar flow shuts off and if it does, then it could torch more without interruption.