ORH_wxman

Oh I just posted above....is -50 the current record? I saw -46.

Wjat is the all-time lowest temps at MWN? I can see -46F in the Jan 1968 cold outbreak, but I don't see anything colder. But I could be missing one.

I'm more annoyed that the timing is going to rob us of a -30F high temp.

I don't see any SE ridge there at all. Heights are all well below normal over the east.

Yeah after 2015....we got this: 2015-16....total turd, but it was a super nino....didn't totally act like the prototypical super nino ala 1997-98 or 1982-83....but it was close enough in terms of our own sensible wx. Warmth and relatively low snow (epic low snow in NNE and far western SNE....eastern areas not to much)....though we did get the rogue 36 hour cold shot that winter. 2016-17....Above normal winter temp-wise, but also above normal snowfall. Had the first of the 70+ February warm spells. Though March went full winter shortly after. 2017-18....Pretty close to normal temps but very skewed on how that happened....arctic cold was plentiful in the first half of that winter from Dec 2017 through first 10 days of Jan 2018 and then we torched for the better part of the next 6 weeks including another 70+ mid.late February deal.....before winter stormed back in March with near-historic snow totals (ironically starting with a 37F rainstorm that busted a 6-10" snowfall forecast over the deeper interior). Snowfall ended up way above normal that winter. 2018-19.....Temps near normal that winter too. Maybe slightly above normal but no real mega torches like the previous two years. Snowfall below normal except right near coast which used 3/4/19 snowbomb to sneak above normal. 2019-20.....Temp above normal and snowfall below normal. Started off promising with that Dec 1-3, 2019 cutoff dropping 1-2 feet of snow over the interior and then the rest of the winter was mostly a total turd. No February 70+ torches, but it did have an early March (Mar 9-10th or so) torch of similar magnitude to those 2017 and 2018 warm spells. 2020-21.....This was prob the best winter since that 2017-18 snow juggernaut. Temps were a bit above normal, but we had a pretty prolific 3 weeks of snowfall between Jan 26th and mid February while avoiding any major melting. Most of interior SNE finished above normal for snowfall....coast got jobbed a bit...esp in that Feb 1, 2021 cutoff. 2021-22.....Last winter we've discussed plenty as it was more recent, but it was more frustrating than anything. We had an epic January tee'd up for us....the pitcher threw a hanging curveball and we popped it up instead of sending it over the Green Monster. That 1/17 stemwinder really cost us an epic month....basically a "how do you turn a KU into a front ender that gets washed away?".....that storm is your answer. Exotic full-phase that gives it a sharp left turn due north into the CT River valley....anything less and it's a KU blizzard. Obviously Boston and nearby got the epic blizzard 12 days later, but back in the interior, it was "merely" a great snowstorm....and wasn't quite enough to get rid of the 1/17 stench. We did get a good SWFE in late February, but then winter went out with a whimper in March. This winter needs no commentary in this post.....lol. We know what's happened.

Where we've been....yeah, December was unfortunate, but I guess that's payback for pulling 12"+ storms out of our ass in marginal patterns for years prior. Though I'm ready to stop rolling snake eyes...seems we've done it lot in the past 3-4 seasons. I remember you mused about how we were due to get screwed a bunch after that 2015 season....we may have been delayed a bit on the timing, but really since 2017-2018 winter, it's been rough. OBviously a few exceptions.

Pretty decent difference between GEFS and EPS too for mid-month....GEFS really aren't that warm...they do have what looks like a potential warm spell around Feb 16-17 but it doesn't last long. EPS seems to have a more robust warm signal and it lasts longer.

I would say this is the portion of winter so far where we got "bad luck"....we prob would end up colder/snowier a huge percent of the time if we roll the dice on this longwave pattern

Yes. You aren't going to be cold with this composite.

1990-91 didnt have an AK pig...it's not as warm as this winter, but it's a top 10 warmest. Monster SE ridge kept us torched most of that winter. But yeah, this is somewhat unusual to have this type of warmth without an AK pig. There's always an element of "luck" (call it "unpredictable chaos" for those who get triggered by the luck term) when you have an extreme outcome. Like a small nuance in the flow could have turned December 2 degrees colder if you trap that PV under the block instead of having it end up in western Canada prior to Xmas.

It will be the most correct if we're talking about runs from yesterday....but it could still be a smidge too cold. But GFS was clearly too warm and it trended a lot toward Euro so now the differences are small.

Yeah that HRRR output is going for historic type readings. It might be just a meso weenieing out too much but you kind of have to at least consider it after that 18z euro run got -36 850 temps to the pike.

Yeah people will be out and about on Friday afternoon…they’ll go into work thinking it’s cold but bearable..and then leave in ranging CAA with brutal temps.

There was like 3 years in a row where Scooter had a higher peak depth than some of those valley towns up there….I remember it became a running joke for a while.

Anyone who wants to look at the raw power of pure CAA can look up 4/5/95. Bare ground and April sun angle with almost no clouds. We had a high of 26F I think in ORH that day.

Yeah I remember it sort of went through southern VT and right into MA for the strongest anomalies. We were tracking Stratton mountain temps.

Kind of weird how consistently the OP GFS has been showing a decent pattern in clown range while ensembles are not. (Outside of that 2/10-2/12 period)

You didn’t break -13 in the 2016 event? ORH airport had -16F.

That 2/1/21 event had a pretty crazy cutoff near me. I had about 17 inches while just 4-5 miles away had 8” of total slop. Even lower parts of my town on the south side prob had 5” less than me. Great event though. That pack had some real meat in it. We ran the table for solid pack from 1/26 that season through mid-March even though it stopped snowing around 2/18-2/20.

Then why wouldn't you get odds on your bet?

ORH just had 12.2" in a month that was literally +10 on temps. They only need one third of that total for you to lose your bet. You need to understand climo a little better I think before wagering.

If we start with a date of 2/10, then the odds increase a little bit....I was correct about 1995....also 1954 and 1901 failed to reach 4" after 2/10 but both were close (over 3 inches). So we're up to 3 out of 130 years versus 0 out of 130.

They’ve never done it in the record so I’d prob put the odds under 1% without looking at anything. If we assume they don’t see anything in the next 7 days which seems reasonable, then maybe the odds rise to a little better than 100 to 1. I’d have to run the numbers from like 2/10-onward to see if they have ever done less than 4” from there. 1995 may have done it…we had hardly anything after the 2/4 storm. We did get a couple inches on the front end of the 2/27-28 ice storm but very little outside of that…there was one other event of less than an inch before the ice storm…and I know we got skunked in March ‘95.

They only need 3.8” to beat it (and 1.8 inches if we use Kevin’s criteria of excluding snowfall past 3/31). One run-of-the-mill forgettable front ender would do it. We used to always sled down the street when I was younger. Plows would get it down to packed snow but they didn’t use as much salt back then so you would have this 1-2” layer of hard packed snow to sled on in the middle of the street (our neighborhood was a giant hill with 2 or 3 streets running down it). We used to hate it when the sanders came through because it would temporarily screw up the sledding but after a little more snow, the sand disappeared. It didn’t melt the snow like salt does. They were obsessed with using sand back then for traction.

If we exclude April, then the record changes. ORH lowest snowfall of 21.2” in 1954-55 included 2 inches in April 1955so their record would actually be 19.2 inches which is a lot easier to pass.