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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    A lot of guidance has a lull for a couple hours this morning before stuff blossoms again…we’ll have to see how that plays out over the next few hours.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Pounding in this little enhanced area right now
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro went from the most suppressed model about 4-5 runs ago to the most amped. Lol. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow given all of the other guidance trended south at 00z.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Radar looks pretty solid
  5. ORH_wxman
    The problem with snow maps is if they are 10 to 1, they will be too high in marginal areas…and that’s not because the model was wrong, it’s because people forecasted using 10 to 1. That’s one reason I like the QPF maps better. Easier to verify the model performance. But in your area, it’s prob fairly safe to use 10 to 1 since most of your snow is falling early with a cold column.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It’s going to be marginal after early morning tomorrow along the coast. Onshore flow will creep temps up above freezing. If rates are decent, it matter a ton, but in lighter snow it could be the type that doesn’t really accumulate.
  7. ORH_wxman
    18z euro ramped up again a bit. Prob warning snows for everyone more than 10 miles away from coast.
  8. ORH_wxman
    All the 18z runs so far have strengthened the confluence in Quebec. Granted, rgem and NAM are in clown range for them but same trend as GFS and ICON.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Haha, he subverted your own joke. That was well-played. 18z gfs is going nuts tomorrow midday/afternoon. Really interested to see how that plays out in the 128 to 495 belt.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I like that area tomorrow if they can stay around 31-32. Should be some decent convergence there. Anywhere with even a few hundred feet of weenie elevation should do well. My modest 350-400 feet may help a lot tomorrow down here near 495.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Pretty uniform easterly flow from sfc to 925 tomorrow morning/midday....that's gonna be good for central/eastern hills. Wonder if that Foxborough area can get in on that action a bit too.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Been the trend all day today
  13. ORH_wxman
    Suppression can happen, but I always love seeing the best negative height anomalies going through the southern mid-atlantic for big snows in New England.
  14. ORH_wxman
    48 hours later on EPS
  15. ORH_wxman
    Does have support from the EPS
  16. ORH_wxman
    The IVT tomorrow really would favor eastern slopes of ORH hills with that light easterly glide. The enhancement has been showing up on a lot of mesos.
  17. ORH_wxman
    18z RAP continues to really amped up that leading band for the pike region....12z run had almost nothing for BOS prior to 09-10z but now it has like 3" of snow in that band by that point.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Moved the psycho-analysis of George's rooting interests in this storm to the banter thread. Let's try and not get derailed.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I'd sign on dotted line for that solution even though I flip to pellets. Really solid thump. Hopefully we start wobbling on the track now....don't want it to go further north.
  20. ORH_wxman
    While 2015 was pretty pedestrian in the CT Valley....1717 is probably the only semi-recorded year that can rival the 2015 blitz out east near Boston. 90-100 inches in a 23 day period....the 1717 blitz wasn't as much but it occurred in about half the time. Like 60-70" over 11 days, lol.
  21. ORH_wxman
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us1223.php (btw, that reference never gets old, lol)
  22. ORH_wxman
    I might actually get warning snows out of this now...I was bracing for 3" 24 hours ago.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeesh, that's a brutal job by the Euro...look at how different 00z run was
  24. ORH_wxman
    Interior SE MA hills may do decent....that Foxborough/Sharon area with a few hundred feet. I think east slopes of ORH hills are going to do well tomorrow too as they will likely stay a tick below freezing with the elevation there.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Looking a bit closer at better maps, Ukie trended a bit north, but the result didn't really seem to change much.
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