ORH_wxman

Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out.

I'm not all that comfortable yet along the pike....I'd prob want to see one more shift S by at least the non-GFS guidance. I'm always nervous about little north ticks inside 48. The one factor that may help in this is the block is in the process of retrograding/strengthening, so I do like that mode of change occurring which was also present in yesterday's event which helped shove it into a CT special. That event never really came back north...it sort of tried to at the last second but only did so marginally.

EPS is honking....GEFS coming around, but a little less robust on the signal. GEFS is also more like 3/13ish rather than 3/11 on the EPS Anyways. here's the EPS....quite a signal for 10 days out.

It's because the GFS isn't really showing a SWFE...it's almost morphed into a Miller B with closed mid-level circulations going south of us.

06z EPS made a nice little tick south too.

06z euro a little colder again. Baby steps.

GFS solution is getting close to a Miller B. Getting closed circulations in the midlevels

Yep. Nice bent back WF too on the front end there. That’s the kind of look you want. It’ll rip just north of it.

GFS looks like it may come in colder than 18z

That was another cold look.

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys.

Yeah it’s nice to see the northward nudges stop. No argument there. Hopefully it can actually be sustained. Need to keep that shortwave from gaining so much latitude in the MS River valley. Swing it through the Ohio river basin instead and we’d do quite well even if we flipped to sleet. You’d get a ferocious front ender first. I mentioned this before, but when it gains all that latitude further west, the best WCB forcing goes up the St Lawrence valley

Yeah didn’t trend like the other 18z runs. Just a very small amount…onto 00z.

St Johnsbury weenies jumping into the CT river that run.

I’m southwest of that near the ORH county line where middlesex county has that winding border E of ORH. Ironically that 68” is really close to Ray’s old stomping grounds in Wilmington.

Can always adjust upward when we get closer.

Snow is sticking on pavement again here. But it’s almost over.

ICON also toned down too....the 3 JV models that went amped at 12z all went more subdued at 18z...we'll see if the globals follow suit or if they are just converging on eachother.

RGEM went the same way. Hopefully we can tick this just enough for a solid front-ender.

Lol yeah. I’m not expecting a repeat, but it’s a loaded pattern for sure. Let’s get it out of fantasy range though. I have no doubt the blocking happens, but that trough ejection is key to actually cashing in on it.

That pattern is very reminiscent of the March 2-3, 1960 pattern in the Kocin book.

Agreed...I'm not impressed by the forcing at all on a Euro solution....best WCB stuff gets shoved up into upstate NY like over near MSS through YUL (Montreal). Any snow is better than no snow, but that type of solution looks pretty weak sauce overall. If things can get pushed just a shade east, I'd like the overall forcing look better for New England.

Good flakes here again with intensity picking up....but temp is a bit over 33F. Not gonna do much unless it picks up even more.

Not that much QPF when you have the best mechanics west of you....it tries to get crunched under us, but you have exhausted the best WCB forcing by then. So even the areas that sya mostly snow would struggle to get to warning criteria.

Euro is def siding with those mesos from earlier this morning.