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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    This is prob what Feb 1989 would have looked like if we had the same frequency of model output back then.
  2. ORH_wxman
    the 18z HRRR is already a solid 30 miles south of the 15z run at 14 hours.
  3. ORH_wxman
    What is concerning isn't just the south trend in and of itself...it's also causing the dynamics to be weaker because you're not curling up that vort as much like we see when you get just a tiny bit of northern stream insert.
  4. ORH_wxman
    It looks like it is going to....coming in flatter on 18z so far. Not sure it will be as bad as the RAP, but the trend will be south this run.
  5. ORH_wxman
    18z RAP gets no precip to the pike. 0.1" of QPF to about HFD.
  6. ORH_wxman
    1/27/11 was similar up here (down by you, it was always going to be a big storm)....models went from a huge hit around 48h out to almost a total whiff 24h out but then in the final 12 hours, they blitzed back NW....at first, the old RUC had us getting crushed at 12-18 hours out, but we sort of discounted it as RUC amped bias beyond 6 hours, but then it kept showing it and finally the 18z NAM came in and jumped way NW. Most of SNE got like 12-18" from that one
  7. ORH_wxman
    This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is almost a copy....
  9. ORH_wxman
    Not verbatim, but it's still concerning if there's even a compromise between it and other guidance.
  10. ORH_wxman
    This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Dude was locking in the ICON a couple days ago while calling everyone weenies when it had mostly rain south of rt 2.....utter embarrassment.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Both NAMs, ICON and HREF all give you double digits. GFS technically a little south, but you'd prob score 10"+ on that run too given the ML fronto look. You may miss the goods if this ticks a little south, but there is guidance that hits you hard at 12z.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Temps or are you worried about the best stuff going south? Seems like if you end up with an inch of QPF but 925mb is like -3C during the bulk of the good stuff, you'll pound paste.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Your elevation there in "northern" SW CT might be a great spot for one of the highest totals.
  15. ORH_wxman
    PVD will do fine...they'll get warning criteria even if they don't jackpot.
  16. ORH_wxman
    GFS has another clipper right behind the 2/17-18 system. Active northern stream.
  17. ORH_wxman
    A lot of good cross-hair sigs showing up on different pieces of guidance.....if QPF is around an inch, wouldn't be surprised to see some of the hills get 15"+ since they can prob go 15 to 1 or better on the ratios with that look. Might be tougher to pull those ratios lower down where it's more like 32-33F.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Here's HREF QPF on the 12z run...looks kind of like the NAM though maybe a tiny tick S.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Actually I may have spoke too soon on 2/18...that's still a decent look and close to the NJ model low that @Typhoon Tip and I were discussing.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Looks a bit SE of where'd I'd expect. You don't have any worries there.
  21. ORH_wxman
    GFS juiced up the clipper this run...but the 2/18 threat looks weaker behind it.
  22. ORH_wxman
    H7 low basically tracks over southern shore of LI to Block Island or maybe just a touch S of BID on the GFS....that's a great spot for HFD/ORH/BOS.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Looks a touch better than 06z
  24. ORH_wxman
    There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it's wringing out all the QPF where the best 850-900 forcing is...I'd expect to see that when you have a really weak vort and a more rounded trough....not a neg tilt with a strong vort.
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