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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm sure several of the ensemble members just absorb it into the northern stream early on....or don't ever really see it. I'd like to see a bit better continuity on the northern stream though...it's been jumping around a little too much for my liking on a typical D4-5 forecast.
  2. ORH_wxman
    OP is probably right in the middle of the EPS....I think this makes a whiff a lot less likely now, but I never really bought the whiff idea. I've always been more concerned with ptype in this one. The key will be that lead southern streamer staying ahead of the northern stream long enough.
  3. ORH_wxman
    EPS def a good bit west of 06z....a lot of inland members now which were almost completely gone at 06z
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yes it is similar to some extent, though the Jan 2015 blizzard had probably even a wider turn....another one is late Feb 1969, but again, a wider turn on that one too which is why it wasn't a big deal west of the CT river. This one is not quite going as far east initially. (or southeast in the case of Jan 2015) A little bit of 3/13/18 too. But again, this northern stream seems to be slicing in from a little more west angle which keeps better precip further west.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Anytime you get legit heavy rates, it's going to latently cool the sfc to near freezing. With those rates and height falls shown on the Euro, it's going to be heavy snow under the CCB even in low elevations. If we end up with a system that produces only moderate rates, then the lower levels will definitely play a much larger role in preventing accumulations.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The height falls on that run are pretty crazy....trying to tear a hole in the atmosphere near ACK/MVY.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Once the CCB gets cranking, it's about -2C to -3C in the meat of it.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Lower elevations would get crushed on the euro solution inside the meat of the CCB.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Good animation Paul....look at that lead shortwave get pretty far east before it gets captured/phased back with the northern stream ULL...that is key to a big hit outside of the Berkshires/highest elevations.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Nice 18 hour stall near the Elbow/Islands.....
  11. ORH_wxman
    Takes a nice trajectory...just outside 70W and then pulled NNW to the position near ACK/MVY.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Captured near MVY
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro juiced up again....large area of >0.50" QPF in CT.
  14. ORH_wxman
    You'll be back for the 3/18 and 3/23 threats.
  15. ORH_wxman
    12z doesnt come out for another 20-25 min or so. But 00z and 06z kept ramping up. 00z and 06z were fairly similar though 06z was better in eastern SNE than 00z was. Pretty much same in W CT.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Ukie almost pulled it off.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Almost reminds me of the Mar 2013 firehose with that 600 mile long fetch of easterly 850s, lol. It's a little displaced south though. But just another solution....that was really close to being a monster hit.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Deepening ULLs going underneath New England are always intriguing, so we watch for surprises.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yes....GFS was really shallow with the northenr stream too...I think if we had dug the northern stream just a touch more on the GFS, we could have achieved an EPS-esque solution.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Maybe....but it can't really claim as much of a win as it might have if it never waivered....it went completely to the Euro idea by yesterday's runs only to come back AFTER the Euro came back north at 18z. But yeah, if this comes in another tick amped, then its original idea from like D4-5 will end up not far off. It just didn't stick to its guns.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yep...what we want is the southern vort to outrun the northern shortwave by enough so that by the time the northern catches up to it, the low is taking a wide turn and then gets ripped back north along like 70W and back toward ACK. We don't want that process to start earlier like what happens on the GGEM and ICON because then you just rip the low over eastern MA.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Almost a non-storm on the GFS....gets some heavier precip in there via the IVT but this is probably similar to those lows we see on the ensemble clusters that are well southeast.
  23. ORH_wxman
    It wouldn't take that much more amplification of the upper air low to start wrapping a CCB around this whole thing. Getting dangerously close to a full blown storm with that upper air look.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GFS gone wild for CT
  25. ORH_wxman
    First JV model that can see the storm today (ICON) brings it over E MA....obviously not very good for most of SNE...though ORH county to Berkshires and NW CT do quite well on that run with the jackpot from Catskills to NW MA taconics to buried bodies in S VT.
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