ORH_wxman

We were at my grandparents in Holden, MA (just outside of ORH at 1000 feet) and we lost power mid-afternoon with a nasty mixed of pellets and ZR (had about 1.5" of snow before the changeover)....luckily, most of the dinner was already cooked, but some of the sides had to be finished on top of the wood stove. There was already snow OTG too when that storm started because there had been a 2-3" snow event two days earlier. It was like a currier and ives week you'd expect near Xmas and not Tday. That was probably the best stretch of winter that season....lol.

There was a good snow to ice storm in the interior on Tday 1985 too....and of course the warning snow event in Nov 1980.....seems like the '80s were decent for November and spring snows, but were pathetic for actual winter snow.....lol.

It was the gold standard for early season snowstorms for a long time until Oct 2011 (interior, not coast)

Still a lot of uncertainty Tday week on guidance....it's all over the place. Until then, seems pretty boring....cold and dry this weekend and early next week (sans upslope snow showers....maybe a few flurries down here monday night) and then mild and dry late next week.....but a lot of guidance last night went with a mini-cold shot next weekend which wasn't really there before. That might affect the pattern Tday week just beyond that.

Lol we’ve had meltdowns in here before because a D10 storm in mid-November fell apart when it got to day 7….it’s comical more than anything. I knew the weeklies would get a rise out of some so I posted all the pics. The funny part is many of the chronic complainers have still had a blockbuster storm or two in the past few years even if the winters weren’t great. There have been multiple periods in the past when you could go years and years or even over a decade without a big storm (say, 15”+) in large chunks of southern New England. The thing is…the 2000s and 2010s has gotten us to think we’re CNE snow climo now when in reality, that was likely just a couple of awesome decades that were due to regress.

‘09 and ‘02 weren’t. But yeah it wouldn’t be surprising. They do start to look good closer to Xmas week but obviously anything beyond about 3 weeks is like throwing darts

Euro weeklies today:

First Thanksgiving was mild....you gotta wonder if the Pilgrams were throwing their crates and wagons against the rocks in anger.

It was also T-day week that started this discussion. The warmup around 11/15-16 has been pretty well-advertised for over a week now. What happens after about 11/20 is the bigger question.

Been a model war of sorts of Tday week....GEFS have been colder the last few runs while EPS are slightly above normal.

Does CPC use 2N to 2S as the upper equatorial OHC latitude domain? I know some datasets use 5N to 5S, so if they are different, then they wouldn't be comparing the same thing.

Need to get another snowstorm at the Rose Bowl.

35F and maybe a little drizzle here. November is often a horrible weather month.

It's mostly the lack of OHC in the upper subsurface (bluewave has been showing this too for many weeks)....compared to other Super Ninos, this event is seriously lagging in that department....which is why every time we've seen all this hype about another WWB or kelvin wave, the SSTA response has been tepid at best. This evetn will probably warm a bit more, but getting very hard to see path for enough warming to qualify as a Super Nino on ONI.

These recent GFS runs have had some awesome looks in clown range. Hopefully we can get something to setup resembling that. Still some differences between EPS and GEFS for that period but they aren’t horribly far off.

Next Monday night/Tuesday might be a good appetizer for winter in the upslope spots in NNE. Im expecting currier and Ives photos…hopefully Stowe hasn’t turned on the pavement melters yet.

Looks cold for the south but not particularly cold for northern tier…esp N plains. Northeast might be near normal in that type of look which would be good enough to produce some good snow threats when you have an active STJ. But often, the devil’s in the details. If the positive height anomalies in Canada are pushed a little further north, then it quickly becomes a colder look for the northern tier….and likewise, if pushed south, it becomes a warmer look for everyone.

The bolded has been said a bunch during our cold Novembers. “The pattern is going to flip to warm once winter starts” was the most popular. Honestly, I’ve seen both happen where the pattern locks in during November for many weeks well into winter and other times where it flips.

Agreed. Typical wavelengths aren’t really in place yet for winter…and I think this year especially, we need to be wary of the potent El Niño still developing which can cause drastic changes in sensible wx as winter matures. It’s easier to start feeling down on winter in La Niña if December is a turd, but that’s probably premature in a potent El Niño. On the flip side, if we start rocking with snow threats in December during potent El Niño, that’s usually a sign of good things to come.

There’s been a lot of uncertainty out in that D10-15 range. Going full-on split flow out west is going to cause a colder look if that’s the path we take (ala OP GFS)…but EPS/Euro guidance has been saying not so fast…wait another week for that to happen. Interesting to track though…

It was cold here but the winter was FAR more severe in the Lakes/Midwest/upper plains.

Yeah Jan-Mar is rocking in that but even December was decent…not as cold as the other months but that would likely produce some real winter threats. None of this really matters though…I wouldn’t trust those LR model runs as far as I can throw the supercomputer that runs them.

Surprised how good December looks on that.

OHC being so weak compared to other Super Ninos seems to be a big culprit on why these westerly wind bursts aren’t producing big spikes in the SST anomalies. Good to see it rising a bit now as that should help with Chuck’s +PNA indicator…and I think we want to see some more 3.4 warming so this acts a bit more Nino-ish as we go into January. But having this Nino behave much weaker is probably not necessarily a bad thing as we go into December.

If MEI has trouble getting above 1.0, then it could be a big deal. I still expect it to but that was prob the nail in the coffin for anything above 1.5 (it was already looking dubious for that anyway before the update)