ORH_wxman

Yeah the pattern is there for it...if we can hold the cold into the first week of December, I like our chances even more.

Well, for one....GGEM's warmer solution for next Wednesday that I mentioned in the first post seems like it might verify....so that's annoying for the ski areas. That said, it looks pretty brief for the warmth/rain in that. I do think NNE will have a shot or two post-Thanksgiving....that pattern is decent. Even if it's just a lot of rotting LES running into the mountains and getting reinvigorated by upslope. That's still going to be nice. Hopefully we can score one solid QPF snowy system though to lay down a good base.

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify. It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE. Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

2021 was near normal. 2018 and 2019 were quite cold though.

There’s def been the tendency to see the longer range trend colder as we get closer rather than the other way around in the past few weeks. There’s nothing that guarantees it continues, but all else equal, it’s better than the other way around.

Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much.

Yeah seems like overkill for a 6 week forecast.

EPS def out of step with the OP’s milder Tday weekend look. Regardless, still looks quite cold the week after Tday so maybe a chance to sneak in an event there.

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events.

That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter.

The next 2 weeks looks really solid for an early start…sans the mildish few days later this week…but that torch really shrank in both magnitude and duration as we got closer…once that cold front comes through on Saturday, I think it’s pretty cold through months-end barring any major changes (or the clown range OP GGEM scoring a coup over the rest of guidance). Should be a lot of snow making and plenty of upslope opportunities from that early-season lake effect on full blast. Hopefully we can get a good synoptic event in there too so that some sense QPF is put down in the base.

That was close to major violence the day before Tday on 18z GFS. Either way though, like I mentioned earlier, there’s quickly a forming consensus on guidance for a cold Thanksgiving. Don’t think we’ll break all time monthly records like 2018, but some of those runs are damned cold.

LOL...didn't see Scott's post....but yeah, pretty torchy for a chunk of early December, but it does improve late....here's how it looks for the 5 day mean leading into Xmas Eve

Weeklies are kind of up and down...maybe a bit colder to open December but then it quickly goes torchy for about 10-12 days until it drastically improves heading into the week before Xmas. Also worth noting that the EPS are significantly colder than the weeklies for late November.

Decent chance of some snow showers and flurries coming through this evening....so maybe those who haven't seen first flakes yet will see a few.

Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too.

Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching.

Yeah it was toast inside of 495 by Tday....we had prob like 75-80% cover here, but it was completely full in ORH...but like 5 miles east of here was almost completely bare.

At this point, we might want to root for the Super Nino to verify so we can actually have a Nino North Pacific….lol. Don’t think that’s happening though.

GFS trying to go 2018 for Tday

October was like for a long time. Between like 1930-2010, ORH had like no temp trend in October. But then the 2010s went furnace lol.

ACK actually historically has an earlier first freeze date by 4 days than BOS. I was always surprised by that.

Yeah let’s get that pattern for first week of Dec. That would likely give some chances.

Yeah end of the month is def trending colder on most ensemble guidance...i'll be interested to see if EPS go that direction too in a little bit here.

Yeah the pattern flipped the final week of the month. Late Nov 1985 and Dec 1985 were very cold....we prob left some potential on the table in Dec 1985. It was like a -5 month, but not all that snowy.