baltosquid

We are due for a 1996 type January We’re also due for eternal heartbreak!

Getting some cross polar flow to start the new year would be great. Worried though that we’d still be stuck with trying to thread the needle with systems like tomorrow’s to take advantage of it. GFS likes a strong Scandinavian ridge just beyond 10 days, maybe that’s the first domino to fall towards getting the New Year pattern change.

So if someone more knowledgeable could chime in, I’ve been watching what looks like a little vort that started in far northern Quebec trend further and further southwest (edit: corrected from southeast) for Wednesday through a number of runs now, particularly on the gfs. 12z had it at the south end of James bay around crunch time. If that were to continue, could that potentially influence the storm we’re tracking to head further north? I think I remember last year we lost a storm when a piece of the TPV came down too far and the storm we wanted ended up feeling that and cutting instead. Not sure if that’s in play here.

At long range, but the NAM looks like it could have been decent for Wednesday. Cuts off just as the snow starts falling. RGEM is still coming in but also looking like it'll bring snow.

Next weekend definitely has some interesting features on the ensembles as well. Scandi Ridge is strong and there could be a 50/50 in play. But we get screwed by the PNA leading in to it. If that can relax a bit and we start out with colder air it could maybe happen. There's a very marginal snow signal on the 24 hour EPS snowfall charts.

GFS with a small event, coating to 2 inch across the region, for next Wednesday. Para does not show the same, though. Ensemble h5 look is a bit better compared to 06z.

(39.289920,-76.583591) The pagoda is close enough

As quickly as it switched back to snow, changing to sleet/rain now.

Snow is back and heavy at Patterson Park

Radar CC indicates change is coming in Baltimore. Flakes have gotten way smaller. Roads just beginning to cave around Patterson Park.

Coming down pretty hard at Patterson Park! Don’t have my own equipment but wunderground’s nearest station is down a degree to 32. What a pleasant morning so far.

So we've got the euro taking next Friday's snow south, GFS getting some snow in here before petering out, Para with dry cold, CMC with a harrowing R/S line through DC, and ICON with a flush hit. Honestly, a week out, not the worst signal for the possibility of something maybe lurking. If it survives the weekend, it'll be worth talking more in depth about. For now though it does not exist in my expectations.

12z RGEM still a nice event for MD sans Eastern Shore down to DC latitude, 3-6 for most. Still think it's weenie to expect this kind of storm to bring more than an inch or two if anything but it's more believable than the 6-8 inches of the 06z run.

That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol.

Flakes have shrunk a bit around Patterson Park but still coming down at a good rate. If it gets any colder or the snow gets heavier, probably back to the big flakes.

Medium-large flakes, moderate rates right now around Patterson Park. Been picking up pretty steadily. No wind. Just straight, slow falling flakes. Very pleasant

GFSv16 jackpots DC in wave 1. Thin horizontal strip of 0.5-0.6 QPF.

GFS is drier but nowhere near as dry as the Euro still. Wave 2 more north than other guidance.

Trend north on HRRR for wave 1 approach has been real this evening.

Doesn't have the crazy QPF that put down a wide swath of 1+ inches, but since that was almost certainly not going to happen anyway, yeah a pretty good run. 0.5-0.7 QPF for most of the subforum after the second wave.

Whole thing.

Definitely sticking to its 18z guns. Surprised the NAM went its way and not the other way around for these 00z runs.

One thing is for sure, the euro did not pick up an ally in the NAM. Also, on 3km, 2nd wave through 48 isn't as expansive with precip even if the low is a bit north.

2nd wave didn't quite touch Baltimore with precip at 18z, doing so this run. But the bigger change by far this run was wave 1; wave 2 looks like it will be very similar, only a little bit north.

3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement.