baltosquid
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Everything posted by baltosquid
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There’s not even an inch on my deck as I wake up. Just a coating. We got screwed between bands. I had that feeling we’d end up in a bad spot and of course, it found a way for Baltimore, as always.
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Still raining in Baltimore. Hope it changes soon. Going to bed and crossing my fingers for a nice surprise in the morning.
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Radar activity picking up around the city, probably will drizzle at first. Hoping to see flakes soon though
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It seems like a big difference maker for 95 yet to be resolved is gonna be how early it can get snowing in earnest - heaviest band seems confidently placed a bit to the NW of 95 but whether that is a 2 or more inch drop off or just half-to inch drop comes down to whether we get a good start in the early hours or if that is a loss. Hoping the met talk in here about shallow warmth pans out and it does indeed get going quickly!
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Idk, I’m starting to feel a Baltimore screw job in my bones. Ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 I feel. I just struggle to believe the GFS or Canadian/RDPS when so many mesos want to favor north. And now tick north/drier on the euro.
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12z CMC is largely unchanged
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RAP 15z is a bit north
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I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...
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Thickness lines descending to our west and rising to the east run to run, nice. Hopefully we are close enough that doesn't become a bad thing where temps become more of an issue (but you'd have more insurance than us down here).
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Yeah definite improvement from GFS, bigger shield, more precip to the border, better jack for 95 from Baltimore to NE. Slightly better for DC
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GFS looks very similar to 18z through 27. Looks like a slightly more organized interaction with the TPV, maybe that juices it slightly, more coastal-y?
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Getting woken up to puking snow by lightning and thunder would be sick
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Icon got better as well!
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Difficult work at 10pm while buzzed but it had to be done I think I like "roofus" to go along with the GFS "goofus"
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It may not be a christmas miracle, or even a christmas eve miracle, but man would it be nice to reel in a christmas eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve eve miracle!
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“Getting RRFS’d” doesn’t have the same ring to it though…
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3k NAM is rougher with the rain-snow changeover and just takes longer to get going, especially for SW.
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was gonna say... this has been a great set of runs with the GFS finally budging a bit, but that just means we could be set up for a vintage Dr. No moment
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Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot
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It will end up falling on 1 lane of 95 from DC to NY
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Looks very similar to 12z through 51, just everything is a touch north. Seems like it will amp a bit more too. Just gotta hope it isn’t too much; could be good if the lid stays on
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Speaking of things you may not need to pay for… DESI is cool and has the national blend of models. The drawback is it is a demanding web page.
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Canadian has seemingly wanted to send it north this whole time save for some wavering last night/this morning so it would be quite the coup for it if we get F’d
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For 95 area at least, snow maps are worse because of the weird mix line that stays in place while it snows south of 95. QPF for Baltimore was 0.3 but 10:1 only shows 1-2 inches.
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lol. The mix on RDPS is comical
