Torch Tiger

Y'all crazee

Very complex forecast, wow.

Get after it...time to get excited for awesome

This is going to be awesome, hopefully it stalls right over Orlando for a few days

Yorian Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

I like this video..60 years ago and it rings very true today

Cat. 2+ milf?

Intensity busts as well as near stationary cyclones, etc. other factors still display the weaknesses of today's models. Watching this weak TD curve 350mi. SE of Nantucket is boring, though

TD6 is a mess

we may never hurricane again

Not gonna happen...is def gonna happen Weenies

Tasty waves, cool buzz and I feel fine

0z Ukie is OTS, has a reasonably potent system. It's worth watching, anyway

The 12z JMA (lol) had a much more favorable UL jet.

The 0z Euro depicts an U/L low pressure near 50/50 at 96hr. modulate that LP less deep in time- as well as a less-than-modeled s/w rounding the base of that deep trough in Southern CA, could be more interesting. Otherwise the flow is too flat and it's an easy recurve. Whether a system even gets going.... Haven't looked at anything 0z except the 0z euro op and gfs, and fwiw.

It's definitely gonna happen.

Lock it

This is an good disc on 1938 https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/wp-content/uploads/sites/137/2017/09/WCSU2012.pptx

Here is one for modern NE 'canes http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/

I'd rather a pattern like '38..closed low over the western lakes, opening up to the ne against that high to the E. That way you don't see so much dry air entrainment with the storm above 30N.

Bob pictures. Maybe NE's most underrated hurricane, along with '44. Interesting that news of both were squashed by world events, especially 1944 and the information blackout https://www.capecodtimes.com/photogallery/CC/20160812/MEDIA01/812009998/PH/1

catastrophic cravingz, nice

Michelin LTX is incredible. Many people falsely blame poor tire performance with poor driver performance. Cooper has been alright to me as well. Most should adjust driving habits and not, tires

Alex 2004. Yeah that's a giant eye and CDO, "annular"