clskinsfan

I am actually fine with a Nino peaking in October. We have had 4 Nino's in 18 years. And all of them have delivered. Maybe not wall to wall snow. But they all have been above average snowfall out here.

@stormtracker Did you see this? They pulled Beethoven's DNA sequence from locks of his hair. Apparently it wasnt just his drinking that killed him. He was predisposed genetically to have liver disease. And he had hepatitis B as well. Modern science is something else. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/locks-hair-compose-symphony-genetic-information-beethoven-2023-03-22/

I think it is the temperature difference between the latitudes that matter.

Terpeast mentioned in his thread that it is possible the mid lat SST's are warming faster than the tropical SST's. Possibly make Nina's a permanent base state. I hope not.

Cut down a Red Mulberry tree today. Let it grow for about 15 years thinking I would get some berries from it at some point. Turns out there are male and female trees. And only the females make berries. I have been growing vegetables for decades. But never really put any effort into trees so I didnt know. I am now. Planted apple and pear trees this year. Anyways. I damn near killed myself today. I cut the notch a little too deep and figured it would be fine. Went to cut the back cut and the frikin tree started falling over before I even started the cut. I am not a spring chicken anymore, mid 50's, and lucky for me the tree fell dead smack in the direction of the notch or It would have killed me. My wife was freaking out. :). She said well YOU WILL be hiring someone to cut trees down in the future. I cut the tree up, stacked it and grabbed a cold beer. Felt like a kid again.

We can still have Pac puke in a Nino. But it is more rare. Nino's tend to give us lower heights over the Aleutians. Which helps with cold air getting forced further east towards us. Add in an active STJ and I will always take a Nino over anything else. Especially if we can get some blocking. It could be that we will have awful winters with an occasional bomb in Nino years. Like 2016. And if thats what it takes for snow going forward I will take it. Look at this graph of Enso states by year. We have had FOUR Nino's in 18 years. The predominate Enso state has been Nina's. And they are pretty much game over for us. And because we rarely see a neutral anymore, It appears going forward that we will have extremes weather wise with everything. Including strength of Enso state. My fear is that we face Nina's the majority of years going forward due to our changing climate. And if that is the case. We are pretty much screwed.

Great post. And I agree with a lot of it. The bigger question for me is with the current climate are we going to be dealing with Nina's going forward. We have had 4 Nino's since 2005. 4 Nino's in 18 years. If Nina is going to predominate base state going forward we are screwed regardless.

Forgetting about the severe season. That quick warming in 2002 led to the 02/03 winter. Which of course meant PD2 and the 7th snowiest winter in Winchester history. Hopefully we get a repeat.

Especially at mid day on March 27th.

You guys to the east can get saved with northern stream vorts. Pick up the junk before they bomb out and hammer New England. We get jumped out here.

Well basically you wont have to worry about winter except once a decade. So yeah. Generally the Mid Atlantic might be the best retirement spot. After retirement you should expect to see 2 or 3 snowstorms before you die.

After the past 6 years. I will not EVER think about being excited about a Nina. Will not happen. The general theme is Nina? Yeah. Winter is over.

This wasnt a dud. This was a historic failure. Even by our standards of failure there is nothing close to this winter season. The icing on the cake is we will most likely be cold for the next 5 weeks. You really cant write a worse book.

This right here. I know PSU put up some stats about Nina's being not as bad. But in my 50+ years of life they suck. They always have sucked. At least with Nino's we get an active STJ. IMO that gives us a better chance of having vorts forced under us with any blocking at all. There is a reason the Midwest loves Nina's. Dominate northern stream helps them.

Whatever. 18Z GFS lines us western folks up for a small front end thump the last week of March to end this disaster of a winter. I am sitting here looking at Doug Kammerer doing his forecast and wanting to cuss him out in all honesty.

Off and on snow showers this evening. With howling NW winds. It is raw out there.

Shouldnt we expect a more amped storm towards the end of March though? Bottom line for me is there is a storm on all of the models in that timeframe. I would probably favor a more amped up storm over a southern slider at this time of year. Although this winter has done nothing but disappoint.

Yeah. I was just looking at the RLX radar site and the snow has really blossomed down there. It is on a good trajectory for us overnight I think. Would be nice to wake up to an inch in the morning.

Picking back up here again. And the radar actually looks decent for a chance to snag maybe an inch overnight?

Snow slowed down considerably for a couple of hours. Now back to light snow again out here. Too bad this didnt come overnight.

Really coming down hard here now. Temp down to 31. Grass whitening. Beautiful.

Snow just started here. 34 degrees.

Snowing just west of Winchester now. Just looking at traffic cams. Would love to snag enough to cover the grass.

Radar actually looks decent for the area to snag some flakes today.