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clskinsfan

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Everything posted by clskinsfan

  1. clskinsfan
  2. clskinsfan
    Good to "see" you Bob. Amazing what not having a Nina for once can do. We are gonna have our chances this year. Maybe they all fail. But I find that highly unlikely.
  3. clskinsfan
    Baffin blocking. Even better.
  4. clskinsfan
    I spent the past two winters studying the MJO. And posted the forecast here a ton. I am at the point where I dont think it means a damn thing to us in a NIna. Even when it was in a favorable phase during a Nina it didnt help. Now in a Nino?
  5. clskinsfan
    I feel pretty confident that those of us to the NW will see snow over the next couple of weeks. The modelled pattern is screaming for it. The one thing that I really love seeing is the sustained lower heights over the Aleutians. If we can get even a half way decent Pac with some some sustained blocking we will have our chances.
  6. clskinsfan
    The Tuesday wave would be a front end thumper in January as well. I just hope we dont use up the STJ before then.
  7. clskinsfan
    Has been showing an active STJ for days. We are gonna have our chances this winter brother.
  8. clskinsfan
    Stats are how we kind of track correlation though arent they? I am almost 55 years old and have tracked winter since I was 9 or 10 years old. So while my sample size is small my stats are all I know. And what I know from my stats is if late November/Early December suck we are most likely screwed. Now this is MY observation of MY life. Does that really mean or matter anything to anyone else? Who knows. But snow is an IMBY game. It always has been.
  9. clskinsfan
    3K showing a possibility for some light icing on Tuesday morning in the Shenandoah Valley. Something to watch at least. Temps have been trending a little colder on the past few runs.
  10. clskinsfan
    GFS would be some pretty decent LE during the few days after Thanksgiving. That is how we usually score our first accums out this way. Get a streamer to set up for an hour or so. And the southern stream is active as hell. Plenty to watch for so early in the season.
  11. clskinsfan
    Such an early cold shot though. I will take it right now. Pretty much everything is lining us up for a nice winter. As long as PSU gets a god damn inch we are good.
  12. clskinsfan
    Look whats dropping in from Central Canada after Thanksgiving brother. No joke its COLD.
  13. clskinsfan
    I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter.
  14. clskinsfan
    Source cold from central Canada is no joke over the next couple of weeks. Low single digits even moderated to the east coast is high teens/lower 20's. Pretty anomalous for the Thanksgiving timeframe. Not unheard of but not anywhere near normal either. Cold turkey day incoming.
  15. clskinsfan
    Ninja'd
  16. clskinsfan
    Midlo of Maryland?
  17. clskinsfan
    I agree. They broke it when the "upgraded" it.
  18. clskinsfan
  19. clskinsfan
    Love that guidance wants to keep the pattern of sending storms up the coast in the longer range. Game on.
  20. clskinsfan
    Interesting how the NAO was mostly negative throughout the winter in all but Super Nino's. That is a weenie post for us if I have ever seen one.
  21. clskinsfan
    Yes. If we can get that Aleutian low to set up for a good chunk of the winter we are probably good to go. We should of course expect that in a Nino though.
  22. clskinsfan
    09/10 was an aberration period.
  23. clskinsfan
    That wave the week after Thanksgiving on the GFS is something to watch imo. The setup is decent. Get the NS to phase in at the right time and it could work out. And I agree with PSU about the lack of snow by December 15th. Out here it is the same. A no snow November/early December usually means a ratter. 2016 was saved with the storm of my lifetime. Or that winter was heading to a complete disaster as well. But I dont think we see no snow in either month. We are gonna have our chances.
  24. clskinsfan
    Sorry wrong spot to post.
  25. clskinsfan
    Short Pump screwed.
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