GGEM kind of caved to the American models at 12Z. RGEM still likes the event. But it is basically on its own now. If we can steal an inch I will be happy.
Actually if all of the cold air didnt get locked on the other side of the hemisphere for 5 weeks we would have had an incredible winter. We had plenty of storms. Just no cold air.
Pretty weird shoveling this stuff. Perfect cold powder that wont stick to anything covered by a thin layer of sleet. I cant remember ever shoveling anything like it.
In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see.
I think point number one was the biggest factor in the early winter fail. Pure bad luck. If the cold air had been trapped on our side of the hemisphere we would have had an entirely different January IMO.