clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Yes. The cutoff is brutal. Especially for my area (Winchester). Literally 10 miles could be 4 inches or nothing. I would expect the precip shield to actually be a bit larger. Weenie logic only.
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Yeah. I deleted the post because it was the one already being referenced. He has a point in his last update about the wet ground and warm temps having an effect on any accumulations. I like to jab at him because he has blocked me on just about every platform he is on. But the guy knows more about NE snowstorms than I could ever hope to know. He knows his shit. The problem is he is a shit about the way he talks to people.
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That was before the Euro took a step toward the GFS. He will sending out an ALEET any minute now since the Euro moved.
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Dont think anyone mentioned it but the 18Z RGEM took a big step toward the GFS. Pretty major change run to run.
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Short Pump ftw? In all seriousness that late week storm has the potential to be a big one. It really bombs out off the coast. A little earlier and we get wrecked. It's nice to have some stuff to track at least.
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Gotta love the RGEM trolling us Winchester folks.
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I dont have access to the 360 Euro maps. But that map he posted was an 850 temp anomaly map. You cant really see anything about surface temps with that map. And the anomaly is only 1C above average which would lead me to believe we are below freezing at 850 on that map.
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Miller B screwjob incoming on the Euro for late next week.
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Yeah. And it is followed with sub zero temps. I would take that and call it a winter.
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I agree with this. One thing the models have been consistent with in the long range is they are completely inconsistent in the long range pattern. I just dont think we have any idea what late January/February are going to look like because of this. I think we all agree a blockbuster winter is off the table. But living where we do it only takes a couple decent storms to make our winter. A dead STJ isnt going to help for sure though.
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On the bright side the models had been calling for the exact opposite a month ago. (Crappy Pac and great Atl) Who the hell knows anymore? This hobby can be so tiring.
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Its probably a pretty decent sign that both the Euro and GFS have a nice 500 pass to our south in that timeframe though.
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Yeah. That thing is a monster. Would probably see a wind driven squall at least.
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Fringed. What else is new.
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Merry Christmas everyone. May your sugar plums not melt today. http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/yb.gif
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That's pretty much white flag language Yep. Ji. I think we are in pretty deep trouble brother. Been wrong before. And will be wrong again. But I would bet my life savings right now that we go WAY under climo. It is what it is.
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Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone.
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This. We are probably in a lot of trouble. No Aleutian low for the entire winter is a death nail IMO.
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Yeah. that is probably pretty much winter over if it is right.
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We live in a different universe than those to the east when it comes to snowfall. It is what it is.
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Nothing better than Speedo's on Christmas morning friend.
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sorry wrong thread
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On the bright side for next winter. Without an Aleutian low this winter we are much more likely to get a nino next year. I am not tossing this winter yet. But the Pac is ugly. And I am not seeing how that is going to break down anytime soon. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/8/jcli-d-19-0717.1.xml
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Going into 8 in January broke the computer. If it does make it into 8 the MJO forecast from a month ago would be spot on. So kudo's to that.
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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
clskinsfan replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah. I have been watching the models wanting to cut everything in the long range. And we can actually score some snow with some entrenched cold air in those events. A front end thump followed by a dryslot. We have had multiple 6+ inch events out this way in the past decade from that. Including last February.
