clskinsfan

RGEM out to 21. More juice with the first wave. Looks good so far.

Some serious rates incoming as modelled.

Saturday storm is juicy. I would think it starts with a burst of snow over to heavy sleet. Looks like fun.

NAM with a sleet bomb on Saturday as well. Are we going to start talking about that one in here or still use the other thread for it.

How much mix did it show for jyo? The 12K has a lot. The other two NAM's not so much.

2 more of those and we are in business. Hell at this point I will take a 6 inch snow and be happy with it.

2-4 for a two day snowstorm. Oh joy.

That Tuesday event is quickly becoming a Monday/Tuesday event with precip riding along the boundary. What a crazy week we have coming.

The GFS is insistent on that central VA precip hole. Only model I see with it. But it just wont go away.

Much better wave 2 though. I will take that trade off in a heartbeat.

GFS weak and tainted with the first wave.

Thing is if you wish for the first wave to be juiced up it might miss north. And the second wave looks pretty much gone to me for anyone north of DC. This could easily end up with both missing.

.5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh.

I am just going to hug my zone forecast. I can't remember the last time it had snow on it for 5 days in a row.

The problem is the trend. 12z yesterday was 1.1 qpf, Oz .8, 12z today .6. This one is drying up before it even starts.

Euro insists on staying south with the good rates. .6 total qpf for Winchester. Meh.

.2 qpf through 48. Drier this run. But not horrible.

You guys got unlucky with dryslots so far this year. You could easily end up getting the bands with the next couple events though. It has been pure luck out here so far this year.

The NAM says 9:1 throughout the event for MRB. These Cobb outputs are usually pretty decent with ratio's IMO. 210210/2100Z 33 12003KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 210210/2200Z 34 09003KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 210210/2300Z 35 07003KT 31.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 210211/0000Z 36 08004KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0100Z 37 07004KT 31.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 210211/0200Z 38 08004KT 31.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 9:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 210211/0300Z 39 08005KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 9:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 210211/0400Z 40 09006KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 8:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 210211/0500Z 41 09006KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 8:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 210211/0600Z 42 09005KT 31.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 8:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0700Z 43 09006KT 31.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 8:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 210211/0800Z 44 08005KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 210211/0900Z 45 07006KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 210211/1000Z 46 05006KT 31.2F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 210211/1100Z 47 04007KT 30.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 210211/1200Z 48 03007KT 29.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 9:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/1300Z 49 03008KT 29.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0

Would love to see the UK past 144. Looks like it is lining us up for Tuesday as well.

UK says not so fast on keeping total QPF under 1 inch. Sweet run.

Weekend storm. We are still doing that one in this thread right?

GEFS a little colder at 850 NW of the cities. I am sure there is a warm nose somewhere below that. But would be a sleet bomb most likely?

GEFS inline with the op .6-.8 qpf for the area.

CMC is a nasty ice storm for the weekend for all of us.