clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Haha. You are quick. I edited it but not fast enough apparently.
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Yeah. It is weaker and still south. But it definitely took a step towards the GFS this run. And if you look at 500 it is a pretty huge shift for the Euro.
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Oh yeah. Pretty big changes on the Euro from 0Z. Who has the happening gif?
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Pummeled:
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Really busy at work today. So not a ton of time to look at the models. But if you live in the Shen Valley....Sweet baby Jesus let thee GFS be right. In reality we would mix out here most likely as well though.
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Thanks. I can only handle one DT post per day.
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DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace.
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You are killing us man. Actually we would take this in a heartbeat compared to what the Euro is saying. Pretty clear battle going on right now. GFS/ICON vs. Euro/CMC. Still a ton of time left though.
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Its whacked out. Just retire the damn thing already. Sometimes I honestly feel like I could stick a paint brush in my dogs mouth and let him go to work on a piece of canvas and it would be more accurate.
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Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother.
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A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's? I will edit this to mention the 2014 clipper. But that one was nowhere close to that thing being modeled.
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I have a hard time seeing temps being an issue for the next few weeks for any of us. The source region of the air that is going to flood the conus is bitter. Like -40 to -50 cold. Could just be that the model is having a hard time with what temps should be at that time.
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If Charlotte gets 22 inches and I get 2 over the next 3 weeks I am quitting this hobby.
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Yes. I spend entirely too much time on forums. :)
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Was a pretty common thing with the GFS before the upgrade. We are going to find out if that has been fixed or not over the next couple of weeks.
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12Z GFS is straight up weenie heaven. Southern jet active AF. At some point in January the streams are gonna merge. In the advertised setup it has to happen. No guarantee we get hit. But someone is getting clobbered later this month if the setup as advertised is correct.
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I think this one is pretty much a non event for anyone east of the Allegheny front. Hi Res models have the 2m temps close to the mid 30's for a few hours before precip starts east of there.
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Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison.
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Yes. And look at how that cold air is being dumped into the CONUS. You have a literal polar express straight out of Siberia. I am a little concerned about the possibility of the PV getting pushed south and us going very cold and dry. But that is something we cant possibly know in the long range. The only thing that seems pretty certain is we are going to be unseasonably cold for the second half of January.
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I am almost convinced DT is Vice Regent.
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The long range potential of the GFS is salivating. Just look at the split flow, active southern stream and blocking over the top. You have REAL artic air dumping into the country straight out of Siberia through the entire month of January. Get the streams to merge on any of these chances and someone on the east coast is getting smoked. An elongated PV could lead to our southern friends getting hit instead. But the potential on these recent runs is the best I have seen since since 2009/10.
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GFS bringing back the idea of something around MLK day as well. Monster 1051 HP plunging in behind it would deep freeze us. Fun times coming up.
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Been stuck on the phone working all day. But the GFS is pretty much weenie heaven if you like tracking chances over the next couple of weeks. Busy time upcoming for those of us addicted to this hobby is my guess.
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As a side note check out that bowling ball out near Baja: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=12&dim=1
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Windy with blowing snow on 25 MPH winds out here in Winchester. My snowboard is pretty much cleaned off by the wind. Measured 5.3 on my car. So I am going with that. Probably had more if I had measured throughout the night. Just a perfect winter day out.
