clskinsfan

.5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh.

I am just going to hug my zone forecast. I can't remember the last time it had snow on it for 5 days in a row.

The problem is the trend. 12z yesterday was 1.1 qpf, Oz .8, 12z today .6. This one is drying up before it even starts.

Euro insists on staying south with the good rates. .6 total qpf for Winchester. Meh.

.2 qpf through 48. Drier this run. But not horrible.

You guys got unlucky with dryslots so far this year. You could easily end up getting the bands with the next couple events though. It has been pure luck out here so far this year.

The NAM says 9:1 throughout the event for MRB. These Cobb outputs are usually pretty decent with ratio's IMO. 210210/2100Z 33 12003KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 210210/2200Z 34 09003KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 210210/2300Z 35 07003KT 31.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 210211/0000Z 36 08004KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0100Z 37 07004KT 31.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 210211/0200Z 38 08004KT 31.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 9:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 210211/0300Z 39 08005KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 9:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 210211/0400Z 40 09006KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 8:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 210211/0500Z 41 09006KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 8:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 210211/0600Z 42 09005KT 31.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 8:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0700Z 43 09006KT 31.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 8:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 210211/0800Z 44 08005KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 210211/0900Z 45 07006KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 210211/1000Z 46 05006KT 31.2F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 210211/1100Z 47 04007KT 30.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 210211/1200Z 48 03007KT 29.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 9:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/1300Z 49 03008KT 29.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0

Would love to see the UK past 144. Looks like it is lining us up for Tuesday as well.

UK says not so fast on keeping total QPF under 1 inch. Sweet run.

Weekend storm. We are still doing that one in this thread right?

GEFS a little colder at 850 NW of the cities. I am sure there is a warm nose somewhere below that. But would be a sleet bomb most likely?

GEFS inline with the op .6-.8 qpf for the area.

CMC is a nasty ice storm for the weekend for all of us.

CMC only has about a 4 hour lull out here. Pretty much snows from hour 36 to 74. And I get a whopping .8 total qpf out of that. One thing that seems to be coming into agreement from the models is less than an inch of total qpf from this through Friday. Pretty paltry for a 2 and a half day storm.

The GFS did cut back on total qpf. But it brought it more in line with the other models. A lot of that qpf for the Winchester area comes from a lucky band with the second wave. In the end I think this ends up a 4-8 event for everyone. Cant really complain about that. Except the fact that it takes 2 full days to get there.

The NAM definitely ticked north with the second wave. Best run from that model for my area yet. Good trends so far at 12z IMO.

Second wave looks juiced on this run at 54.

NAM qpf pretty similar to the HRRR with the first wave. Just a sharper cutoff to the south. 4-6 for the winchester area.

First wave is 4-6 for our area.

12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling.

Agreed. UK is pretty similar to the gfs on the areas it hits. Just less qpf overall.

DC Jack through 78 on the CMC.

CMC looks solid for DC going off of this site. Kind of similar to the RGEM out this way. But a little better with the second wave. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Just a touch more juiced up than the Euro. An inch plus for almost everyone.