First flakes showing up about 20 miles west of Winchester. Now we painfully wait.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad
3k looks really good for those of us in the northern Shen Valley. Really nice ratios at the start. And the air is moist enough that I dont think we see much virga. Snow should come in like a wall. If we end up with .4 precip we will break 5 inches. Couple of plots at onset for Winchester:
Nah. We are good. I am saying 4-6 for us. 2-4 north and east of us. I am looki9ng forward to playing around in the SPC Meso Analysis site tomorrow. Should be able to see the Def bands set up. Hopefully right over us.
The Ski resorts are going to have perfect snowmaking conditions for most of this month it appears. They may be able to stay open much later this season.
The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is.
We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us.