I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is suffering from some sort of de-amplification bias. That s/w on the 1st is sailing off ESE to Bermuda. Been doing that a fair amount this season.
Always turds in the punchbowl. Virtually impossible to get a decently clean snowstorm look. 1 model goes high, then next one goes low.
If the GFS can decide which s/w to hang it's hat on, we might get somewhere.
That euro look at 240hr is showing airmass direct from Iqaluit straight to the northeast. That could dump some ice cold air in from that source region. Worth watching.
We've had a couple of favourable periods since post Christmas. I didn't see anything out of those but that doesn't mean it wasn't favouable. You guys cashed in some during January. It is what it is.
West coast is now the new east coast. Not sure of the mechanics behind this shift but it's noticeable. My buddy in Vancouver texted me last night. Just posted a 12 burger yesterday. They are expecting another 8 tonight and tomorrow. They also had a 10" storm earlier this month. I've had one 8" storm on Dec 4 and that's been it except for rainers and mild intervals. There is something to this constant troughing out west and ridge east.
Tomorrow's system is kick in the balls. Just can't get the s/w's to amplify when we need them to. Instead they just slide off the coast and east to the flemish cap. Annoying
Looks cold for the next little while. At least you guys have snow on the ground. Wiped clean here and have to start again. Would be nice to get some skating in on the ponds. Fingers crossed for Feb works out better than this month otherwise the rat is nibbling.
Seems the globals want to chase that convection off shore. Hence the way ots depiction. They also did that with todays snow until they caught on and got a clue. A slim chance that happens again. Something has to break right for once.
Remember most of you guys had written off todays snower a few days ago. Keep the faith. Sometimes they come back.
Just a sign of the times. Winters are getting more fleeting. People are a lot more moodier and abrasive in the last few years. A decent winter would go a long ways if we can get one.
The mid range (84-120hrs) euro and gfs for that matter were absolutely dreadful with this system. The Canadian models with the Bay of Fundy track will end up being correct. Can't trust anything outside 72hrs now. That's why i didn't invest in this. Too much rug pulling this season. Congrats to those that actually see accumulations.
I would ignore that euro run. Must have had a bad burrito or something. No way it's wide right with every other model amped up. Just the euro doing it's usual 3-5 day forecast period tour around the map before it comes back.
The day 4- 7 model period is getting annoying. I feel lately that that is the time frame when s/w's make big jumps around. Ensembles until day 3 at the earliest. Hopefully has a clue by day 2 but not always. Anyway good period coming up next week. Hopefully someone cashes in.