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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. I use it for trends. Over the last month, the probs have been lower, but agree until we see it going up under 5 days, it does not mean it is going to snow.
  2. I don’t remember GEFS ever liking next weekend’s storm. EPS is not enthusiastic either. Look- the 12Z EURO op. had a good to great track for us to thread the needle with marginal cold air. Trend or fluke? We will find out.
  3. 18z GEFS Probability maps as said above not liking next weekend but honking in the later period.
  4. WB GFS 18z. EURO and GFS models are very close this far out. You have to smell the rain to get the best snows.
  5. WB EPS 12Z. As Bob describes, while under 9 days, operation is not a lock solution yet but my fingers are crossed.
  6. Agreed....that is why I keep saying that we need a little luck. But also remember close only counts when playing horseshoes.
  7. 6z WB GEFS is worse. The snow shield is strengthening over DC proper.
  8. 0Z EPS WB. Still chasing stars Day 10 plus. Even those odds don’t look so hot.
  9. 18z WB GEFS probability 3 inches or more. Still mostly in Day 10- 16 period.
  10. 12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10. Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10.
  11. Models don’t factor in luck, good or bad. At least something to track over the next week has not gone &$@$”@&$ yet.
  12. WB 6z GEFS snow potential continues to increase for early February, Stick a fork in the rest of January.
  13. WB 12Z GEFS. Most of this probability is not for the February 1 storm but for later in the first week of February. Again, I use this for trends. GEFS is still not honking about anything within 10 days so don't get false hopes. Let's see if it holds for this period for a few days then I will start to get excited. Low expectations keeps one from getting too bummed out later.
  14. WB 0Z EPS says continued patience is needed for the next two weeks. But is there a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel....2nd week of February that the weeklies were alluding to?
  15. 18z GEFS WB. Most of this probability is centered Days 9-16 around DMV I won't give up until mid March.
  16. Not ready to throw in the towel yet either for this weekend. 12Z WB EPS did throw us a bone. 10%-20% chance. Can't be any worse than last Saturday unless it floods.
  17. 0z EPS says move on to other things for the next 2 weeks if you want snow.
  18. 18z WB EPS has about 25 percent of Its members with snow east and north of the mountains for the weekend storm. It is an improvement over 12z.
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