I use it for trends. Over the last month, the probs have been lower, but agree until we see it going up under 5 days, it does not mean it is going to snow.
I don’t remember GEFS ever liking next weekend’s storm. EPS is not enthusiastic either. Look- the 12Z EURO op. had a good to great track for us to thread the needle with marginal cold air. Trend or fluke? We will find out.
WB 12Z GEFS. Most of this probability is not for the February 1 storm but for later in the first week of February. Again, I use this for trends. GEFS is still not honking about anything within 10 days so don't get false hopes. Let's see if it holds for this period for a few days then I will start to get excited. Low expectations keeps one from getting too bummed out later.
WB 0Z EPS says continued patience is needed for the next two weeks. But is there a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel....2nd week of February that the weeklies were alluding to?
Not ready to throw in the towel yet either for this weekend. 12Z WB EPS did throw us a bone. 10%-20% chance. Can't be any worse than last Saturday unless it floods.