Weather Will

Since the probability maps through Day 16 seem to cause so much agitation, I will only show them through Day 5 for now on. Much more realistic. WB EPS 6z.

I am frustrated as well that it always seems like 10 day plus. However, it has also been a frustrating winter. Let’s see if February puts us in a better mood.

WB 18Z GEFS prob of 3 inches or more thru Day 16. Note most of this probability is still 10+ days away. I am going to be very disappointed if there is nothing inside of 10 days by the end of next weekend.

WB UK 12z

WB Can. same time

WB EURO

DR. No appears to be striking again.

Fantasy WB GFS. By the way, Feb 8 is my birthday.....

WB Canadian for the weekend.

Congrats to the DC and SE folks on 12z GFS. We usually don’t do complicated well so we will see.

6z GFS is back to a coastal but not cold enough scenario. WB too slow so TT map. Back to sleep.

As usual, nice writeup by NWS Sterling: Two strong cyclogenesis events will occur in the poleward exit region of the North Pacific Jet during the Tuesday through Thursday time period. These cyclogenesis events will lead to strong ridgebuilding downstream across the western CONUS, while also encouraging a shortwave to dig southward toward TX/Northern Mexico by late Thursday into Friday. Multiple additional disturbances will descend down the front side of the developing ridge and interact with the aforementioned shortwave. The result of interactions between these disturbances remains highly uncertain. Possibilities range from phasing between the disturbances, development of a deep longwave trough, and the formation of a coastal low, to a cutoff shortwave suppressed well to our south, with predominantly dry conditions. With significant spread in both deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence in any given solution is very low at this time, with both timing and amount of precipitation in the late week/weekend period very much up in the air.

WB GFS 0z: NADA

What I find interesting are the GEFS hits to the South of us in the 10 Day plus range. That is new so maybe the pattern is changing?

I lived along 95 for 50 years....now I have a two hour commute to DC. I will hope for snow with the cows. Move NW. I will hug GEFS WB P 17 for everyone.

I am just attributing the maps to Weatherbell.

18z GFS WB

NW folks hug P6 from GEFS 12Z

WB 12 z GEFS mean took a jog east for next weekend.

WB 12z EURO for Sunday 12z

WB EPS Prob map thru Day 15

0z WB EPS mean

WB 0z EPS Control

WB 0z EURO....southern slider

I use it for trends. Over the last month, the probs have been lower, but agree until we see it going up under 5 days, it does not mean it is going to snow.