Weather Will

I will look at 12z GEFS for next week when it is that far out.

My recollection is that the 80-90% was a one run GEFS forecast for the entire 16 day period. I never saw a probability map under 5 days showing those percentages. I don't think that either EPS or GEFS ever had a high percentage for 3 inches or more for this weekend's event.

Agreed....EURO teleconnection ensembles thru 2/20 stink (with the exception of a weak dip in EPO, but that is not enough.) We wait to see If there is a change in the last week of February into March.

6Z GEFS is abysmal for the entire run.. No pictures for awhile. Some would go apoplectic.

Not a flake on 6Z ICON or GFS for weekend. It's over, Grover.

WB 0z EPS for weekend. Dream about 38. Our 2 percent chance....

WB 0z EURO says what snow through Day 10...if it makes anyone feel better the entire megalopolis is a disaster. Back to chasing unicorns.

WB 18Z EPS Control GN

WB 18z EPS individual members....not good.

WB 18Z EPS weak sauce. Hopefully, just a blip.

Hope that is correct....waiting for EPS.

WB 18z v. 12Z EURO at 12z Sat

WB 18z EURO....here comes Dr. No...much weaker surface reflection at end of run compared to 12z.

18Z GEFS thru Sunday.

WB 18z GEFS. Best probability map thru Day 16 in forever. Highest mean also.

I think it will be 12z Friday before we know. Anxious to see and GEFS trends.

WB 18Z GFS. Remember it is still playing catch up to EURO...at least I hope!

NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event. Late afternoon Discussion excerpt. A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95.

WB 12Z EPS Individual Members for Weekend.

WB 12Z EPS Control for weekend.

Looks like about 30% have nice hits. Agreed, nice uptick for the weekend. I am getting to the point where I want to believe this weekend will happened but am waiting until 12Z Friday. I have birthday plans for the weekend and I am telling people we have to go out Saturday. Everyone in my family is laughing at me.

WB 12Z EURO Precip panels...actually very similar to OZ except for Eastern shore

EURO 12Z at 6Z Sunday

WB EURO at 3Z Sunday.

WB 12 Z EURO at 0z Sunday...incoming also better than OZ at same time