Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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Expectations should be low through the next two weeks...ensembles remain a dud. Forget about AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, EPO, and strat.warm. Say a Hail Mary and hope ET comes home. We need divine intervention.
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To keep my expectations in check, I refuse to get head faked by the deterministic models outside 5 days anymore. If their respective ensembles show some support, I keep an eye on it....
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Let’s see what 12Z EPS says but I would not bet against it....
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DR. No has spoken...WB 12Z GFS, Can, and EURO for the 19th storm or lack of one....
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WB 12Z EPS keeps hope alive if you can wait 10 plus days. It will be very interesting to see if a distinct threat comes inside 10 days by the end of this upcoming week. One extra ray of hope is the numbering of heavy hits slightly south of us in the extended period. We are not in the Southern edge of all the heavy hits.
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Teleconnection charts have not looked good in the long range for a couple of days and nothing has looked good inside 10 days for weeks on the ensembles so there should not be a lot of shock in here.
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Lot of interesting analysis here, but both GFS and EURO are very dry the next 10 days. Hopefully things get more active after the 18th. WB 12Z
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My big point is that I am not seeing the holy grail of a sustained -AO, -NAO, + PNA, -EPO. and -WPO. I also don’t know what if any factor the SSW could have or if these teleconnection indices somehow reflect the forecasted SSW.
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Seems like everyone should temper their expectations for later this month based on the WB 0Z EPS teleconnection charts. AO and PNA in particular heading the wrong way...
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WB 18Z GEFS does give us fantasy snow to dream about beyond next weekend...
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WB 18Z GEFS is negative thru next weekend.
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rain to Bermuda...
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WB EPS thru Day 7 as requested...
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WB 12Z EPS. Some chances here Day 5 and beyond. Seems like next week at this time we will know if January is a complete dud or if things are getting ready to rock...
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WB 12Z GEFS. Not yet enthusiastic about the next two weeks.
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We should start to see an increase through the next few days if midweek is going to work out.
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WB EPS for midweek storm not very strong. Just a few good hits. ( the percentage in SW VA is for tomorrow’s system.)
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Mean snow maps give me a sense if the pattern has any potential, no more, no less. Truthfully, I have learned more than five days out don’t look at anything but pattern. Everyone in here is smart enough to know that you should not take one run of any model and take it as gospel. Here, enjoy the 12Z EURO for another 4 hours...
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WB 6 day EPS at 18Z v 12Z. About the same to my non expert eye.
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I am trying to be positive...
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WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed...
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WB 18Z EPS. Mean did bump slightly North. Positive spin is to say it it trending toward the UKMET....
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WB 18Z EURO....only goes out 90 hours but seems to have more precipitation in NW compared to 12Z.
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ICON made a big jump west for end of week storm, although not enough yet to make a difference for DMV. 6z compared to 12Z.
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No worries about thunder stealing...crazy work week on tap with everyone back...WB 6Z GEFS
