Weather Will

Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- 1230 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Plus LUCK!!!

What is the criteria for an ice storm warning?

WB 12Z 3K NAM: not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well.

WB 6Z GFS

Not much of a Snowstorm but a winter storm nonetheless. Hope we don’t have widespread power outages by Mon. Am WB 0Z 3K NAM

White out conditions!!!

Here is precip amounts in 6 hour increments to try to show the point that after 1am it is winding down.

We definitely go above freezing upstairs between 7pm and 1 am on Mon. Exactly when your location loses the mid levels will determine the exact snow amounts. That being said, this is a quick hitter, with most precipitation out of here by 1am.

WB 6Z EURO

WB 0z models

Quick thump, heaviest precipitation comes in between 1-4 and is over before 1am Mon most areas.

WB 18Z EURO

WB 12Z ICON, not Kuchera so probably underdone.

Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand and taking any extrapolation of the NAM with a lot of salt…

No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS?

My thought is the bleeding to the west has at least temporarily stopped. Now we see if we start moving a little eastward, like the last big storm or is it locking in…

WB 6Z v 0Z tick east in snow mean.

96

WB EPS Hr. 90 6z v 0z

Slight improvements….0Z to 6Z; every 25 mile shift in storm track either way will make a big difference for everyone. 4 days and counting….

WB 6Z GFS; slight tick SE.

WB 6Z ICON

WB 0Z GFS storm totals actually very similar to 18Z