Weather Will

WB 5Z HRRR through 6pm

WB NCEP WRF-ARW - NCEP WRF-ARW Core 12Z v 0Z

My point exactly!!!

WB 3K NAM….tick to east with snow amounts 18Z v 0Z

7pm

WB 3K NAM 1pm

WB 12Z EURO Next weekend’s storm to watch

They did fine. Track has been locked in...they just cant sense the detail of mid level warmth that far out I don’t think so Ji. The mean tracks and most low positions were much further SE.

The aspect of this storm that bothers me the most at least from my perception is how poorly the EPS and GEFS did in the Day 4-5 range which should be their wheelhouse unless I am mistaken.

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- 1230 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow changing to ice. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...In Maryland, Washington and Frederick MD Counties. In Virginia, Northern Fauquier and Western Loudoun Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour for a time late Sunday into Sunday evening, making roads nearly impassable for a time.

Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- 1230 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Plus LUCK!!!

What is the criteria for an ice storm warning?

WB 12Z 3K NAM: not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well.

WB 6Z GFS

Not much of a Snowstorm but a winter storm nonetheless. Hope we don’t have widespread power outages by Mon. Am WB 0Z 3K NAM

White out conditions!!!

Here is precip amounts in 6 hour increments to try to show the point that after 1am it is winding down.

We definitely go above freezing upstairs between 7pm and 1 am on Mon. Exactly when your location loses the mid levels will determine the exact snow amounts. That being said, this is a quick hitter, with most precipitation out of here by 1am.

WB 6Z EURO

WB 0z models

Quick thump, heaviest precipitation comes in between 1-4 and is over before 1am Mon most areas.

WB 18Z EURO

WB 12Z ICON, not Kuchera so probably underdone.

Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87