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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. WB 0Z snow maps compared to 18Z. Nice storm but nothing major about it in Frederick or Loudon counties except Northern Catoctins on this run.
  2. 0Z 3K NAM was a drier run for the western burbs compared to 18Z. I see no sign of the IVT east of the mountains this run. Reality is setting in that this is a major storm for the eastern DC burbs and the shore. I will be happy with 3-5 inches of snow blowing around in 40 mph gusts Monday am. Maybe I will get a miracle burst from the IVT to jack my totals but not counting on it.
  3. WB 3K NAM transitions to steadier snow by 6pm.
  4. 12K is crap model. 3K not nearly as good during the day.
  5. Busy day and getting caught up. Lot of talk about the low hugging the coast or going west. My non expert observation is that the reason we don't get slammed further west/ south is because the low intensifies parallel to the Delmarva rather than further south say off of Norfolk. If the storm intensifies faster than forecast and hugs the coast then the NW burbs could get heavier snow. Also, can someone better explain the IVT? I still don't get it. Thanks.
  6. WB 18Z 3K NAM wind gusts 40-50 are widespread developing by midnight Sunday and lasting for a good part of Monday.
  7. Think someone said NAM runs off the NMB? Here is WB 15Z SREF NMB...
  8. Nice run! Winds seem to peak with 40 mph gusts Monday am. Snowcrete followed by snowcane!
  9. WB 12Z 3K NAM is west with this run. However, way too warm everywhere during the day for much accumulation except maybe on grass/mulch.
  10. WB 3K NAM does intensify as it gets to our latitude and annihilates the eastern shore through southern NE. Just does not dig enough southwest to give us the goods.
  11. 6Z NAMs weaker so far, not as intense. Ex. WB 6Z 3K NAM 1 pm Sunday compared to 0Z. Not as intense, not consolidating energy and going negative tilt.
  12. WB 6Z HRRR low stalls off Delmarva, intensifies, and slowly slides East. Showing 9pm and 1am positions. Winds also a factor 20-50mph on the coast. Only thing keeping this from a crippling storm is surface temps which stay above freezing until 9-10 pm. If this is too warm, look out!
  13. WB 18Z GEFS members about 22 (73%) are big hits for the entire region. Impressive.
  14. WB 3K NAM is now in range. Lot of white rain west of the Bay on Sunday unless the storm shifts west.
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