Weather Will

Anyone know anything about the AI GFS....trying to form a coastal after the NY....(WB 18Z). Too many models...it would be nice if one of them would start to stand out like the EURO used to....

WB latest EURO weeklies bring normal temps by week ending Jan. 10. Rest of month is below normal.

I only post those in the digital thread now, I try not to piss off Cape.....

Why do you care what a global model is showing at hour 360?!!!! They are rarely right even at 120 hours out.

WB 12Z GEFS is not a complete shut the blinds for NY week.

Wind front going through with some showers.....

We do wind well in Brunswind..... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 MDZ003-004-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-192200- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0024.251219T1700Z-251220T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251220T0300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Frederick VA-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy- 859 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD and Washington Counties. In Virginia, Frederick VA County. In West Virginia, Hampshire, Hardy, Berkeley, Jefferson, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from about 11 AM to 1 PM, and again 3 PM to 9 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive.

WB latest EPS on PNA. Anecdotally, when I see the PNA at -3 or lower, it just can't get cold enough at our latitude for snow....but notice it bumps up to near -1 around NY week and the control actually goes positive. At that point, a negative NAO could work some magic and pull some cold air down with the AO neutral and the WPO negative. EPO is not favorable NY week.

Bipolar crowd today....we had a decent December with sustained cold and some snow, even if nothing else happens before NY. Models are struggling with the pattern and we will have to wait to see what happens in January....BUT unlike a lot of years there is a lot of cold air lurking not too far to the North. Patience....

WB 12Z 3K NAM....rain and wind incoming...

WB 6Z AI for NY week

Torch my #%#!!!

Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be colder. Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good...

Brief dip in EPO next week and AO trending down too on WB 0Z EPS...

WB 6Z GEFS and 0Z EPS NAO charts

WB 6Z GFS NAO is forecasted very negative around Christmas.

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections.

Wet Thursday evening and Friday am on tap....wash the salt away. WB 18Z 12K NAM

WB 6Z GFS at fantasy range at the end of its run is not torch or flat.

WB 6Z GEFS for Friday.....long shot but a few members have snow.

Christmas temps: torch, cold or average? Take your pick....WB 12Z EPS

Very impressive cold. Frozen after another short stint trying to dislodge some melting ice on my driveway....

2 inches today on lawn. 2.5 for season.

Back edge going through. Side streets and sidewalks are slick and mostly snow covered. Getting cold! About 1.5 on grass.

About an inch on lawn. Streets and sidewalks mostly just wet. Pretty scene but warm surface temps made it an underperformer in MBY.