Weather Will

Beautiful afternoon to put up Christmas decorations!

Story this week is a windy and cold Thanksgiving! Perfect eating weather!

WB 18Z AI EPS at Day 15. I see this as the glass half full rather than half empty; lot of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to play with come the second week of December. Relax, enjoy Thanksgiving with your families this week, and count your blessings.

I think an amped storm brings us rain during this period. But a 2-4 incher could be in the cards if the timing is right especially for NW zones.

WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8. Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4.

WB 12Z EURO: no big storm in MA this upcoming week. Cold front brings some Tues/Wed. showers. Makes way for a chilly, but dry Thanksgiving.

WB latest EPS weekly temperature anomalies for December. I will take it!

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

When you go out to Dec. 6, you see that that the model is really struggling with the pattern. Some members torch; some members cold. So we are in wait mode....WB 12Z EPS

Correct. Looks like a chilly Thanksgiving weekend with warmth on either side.

WB latest EPS weeklies centers the coldest period in December around the holidays now with normal precip. Maybe we will be able to do more than dream about a White Christmas this year. Definitely does not look like a torch right now around the holidays.

WB latest 12Z EPS: temps average near normal/ slightly above through Dec 5. Precipitation looks like it will pick up toward the end of the period but nothing extreme. Looks like any big storms will track NW of the MA during this time frame with the NAO slightly positive and the PNA slightly negative.

WB 6Z AI ensemble....lock in our 1-50 chance for a post Thanksgiving blizzard.

My cherry tree canceled winter....

WB 18Z AI EPS: first threat of the season in early December?

Yes! Much needed rain on the way. WB 18Z 3K NAM.

WB 9Z NBM for late Tuesday/ early Wed. We need every drop...

Latest WB EPS weeklies 30 day period ending Dec. 31.

WB 12Z 12K NAM

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 729 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern, northwest, and western Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Latest EPS and GEFS extended MJO both head into Phase 7 by the end of the month after a long stall in warm Phase 6. Question: DT states 7 is still a warm phase in December while JB says 7 is ok in December. Anyone have data on this topic. If 7 is still warm we will wait until mid December for Phase 8.

WB latest GEFS control, a magical early December to remember....

I share your enthusiasm for snow and many on the forum will say that I still post too many "clown" snow maps, ( I think I'm a better poster now with the excellent constructive feedback I have received) but there is nothing here....when I see many members showing 3 or more inches of snow inside 7 days, I start watching. You will be able to post the above most of the season and you won't see a flake east of the mountains. With this system, at this time it is weak sauce on the EPS and just too warm. WB 12Z EPS.

WP forecast is for slightly below average snowfall and the article is a good reference because it provides a summary/link of the local forecaster's winter forecasts. General theme is more snow for the NW zones this year. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/11/13/dc-winter-forecast-snow-2025-2026/

I get it, but let's try to keep the vibes positive this winter, at least it is not a shut the blinds look....maybe we will get lucky...