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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. The official NWS forecast for my area is for 3-6 inches. I will be more patient and see if I get 3 on the lawn by am. Lived in the DMV a long time, had a lot of 35 degree rain storms that were supposed to be snow.
  2. Without heavy rates, even if it starts to snow again, the ground and air are too warm and wet. I was not expecting a blizzard but was hoping for 3-6 inches. Ain't happening unless you are NE of DC with higher elevation and maybe the Cactoctins with the IVT.
  3. NWS should downgrade the winter storm warning to a drizzle warning for Frederick. I bet I don't get an inch.
  4. Depending on the Norlun is like depending on the lottery to have enough money to live in retirement. NEXT.....
  5. 36, very light mix. Actually hope heavier precip. Moves in after 2 as we start to lose sun angle for the day.
  6. 12Z HRRR statewide and zoomed. Area wide changeover takes place between 4-5. NW zones and elevation spots change over sooner. Radar forecast at noon, 4, and 5.
  7. It is slowly caving to the 3K especially in NW zones. Anxious to see if I turn to snow before noon west of 15 in Frederick county.
  8. WB 11Z HRRR statewide and zoomed. Note west of Bay it is just light snow by end of run at midnight.
  9. 9Z HRRR is still rain throughout the day. Nothing like 6Z 3K NAM.
  10. WB 6Z GFS. Nice moderate snow storm from immediate DC burbs to the Bay, Major to the east...
  11. Big deal if 3K is correct. Warnings will need to go up for DC and immediate suburbs. Big change. Any comments from the Mets on 3K? Is it out to lunch?
  12. We will know if WB 3K NAM is correct soon. 10 am radar compared to 0Z. 10 am surface temps are colder too do to rates. Big deal
  13. WB 6Z 3K NAM gives more moisture to western burbs than 0Z.
  14. WB 0Z snow maps compared to 18Z. Nice storm but nothing major about it in Frederick or Loudon counties except Northern Catoctins on this run.
  15. 0Z 3K NAM was a drier run for the western burbs compared to 18Z. I see no sign of the IVT east of the mountains this run. Reality is setting in that this is a major storm for the eastern DC burbs and the shore. I will be happy with 3-5 inches of snow blowing around in 40 mph gusts Monday am. Maybe I will get a miracle burst from the IVT to jack my totals but not counting on it.
  16. 12K is crap model. 3K not nearly as good during the day.
  17. Busy day and getting caught up. Lot of talk about the low hugging the coast or going west. My non expert observation is that the reason we don't get slammed further west/ south is because the low intensifies parallel to the Delmarva rather than further south say off of Norfolk. If the storm intensifies faster than forecast and hugs the coast then the NW burbs could get heavier snow. Also, can someone better explain the IVT? I still don't get it. Thanks.
  18. WB 18Z 3K NAM wind gusts 40-50 are widespread developing by midnight Sunday and lasting for a good part of Monday.
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