Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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Flurries...
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WB 6Z ICON
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WB 0Z AI EPS at Day 5. About 40% with a hit.
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I sure did. Sorry.
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WB 0Z EURO
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Spunky for a newbie to open a thread; but we need some new energy!!!!
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It has not been pinned but BNCHO started a thread for the weekend threat.
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I guess everyone including myself gave up on the weekend, but at 18Z pretty significant jump North on the AI EURO that everyone loves. Also, a significant jump in snow prob. (Comparison to 12Z).
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WB 18Z AI EPS: maybe 30%....
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WB 18Z EPS: about 10% chance.
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How many drinks have you had this evening?!
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Putting things in perspective, 12Z GEFS has three members out of 30 bringing snow this weekend- 10% chance.
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Agree that once inside 5 days EURO AI is hard to bet against, especially when its global is in agreement.
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EURO is south/weak.
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EURO AI remains weak sauce and south.
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The tracking so long is really exhausting. Really need to dial back until we get inside 5 days to keep one's sanity. Just look at whether pattern is favorable outside 5 days rather than focus on a particular shortwave.
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Have a system to track inside 5 days.. 12Z model summary. GFS: still a southern slider with no phasing. Heaviest precip. southeast; DC about .3 inch; temps upper 30s-40s SE. Canadian: less amped this run so not as cold; but still snow for NW burbs. Precip. 1-2 inches; 6 inches snow NW; 2 inches DC; temps mid 30s this run compared to upper 20s last run.
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WB latest EPS extended control will verify.....Ji get the Tylenol....
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Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will get back on the saddle...
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WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS.
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WB 18Z GEFS says it is over for this weekend.
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The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons. 1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing at all. Looking for the more perfect alignment? How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.)
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WB 12Z Euro and Ai at 7 pm Sunday. Maybe they meet in the middle....
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12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.
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Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks. Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.
