SnowDreamer
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Everything posted by SnowDreamer
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Not sure where to put this, but why do some models run shorter than others? This sounds like a dumb question as I'm typing it, but bear with me. If they wanted to run the NAM 12K out to 120 or 180 I don't see why they couldn't. I know that the long range verification scores would be crap. Is it a computing allocation issue, or is that the physics aren't good enough to handle longer lead times so why bother?
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There's no shortage of threats to the happiness of a true weenie. In all seriousness, we've seen more runs with late transfers than suppression issues. I know the drum of trend on Euro is being beaten, and it's definitely a drum worth playing, but I still see more late transfers modeled than suppressed solutions.
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This is an important point. 925 and below is frosty, and IMO the weenie takeaway is that GFS thermals still look weird against other guidance.
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This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. I count 18/20 with 6"+ 9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues....
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I can't find maps anywhere atm. Meteograms for DC looks pretty good. 30mm = 1.18 inches QPF as snow
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Ukie a sudden contendor for most-hugged model for the NoVA/DC crew.
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Big L for op
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definitely warmer at 102 near DC
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I went 15 to 8... wanna start a class action?
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Sits on or next to delmarva from 111 to 129... wow. Slightly too far north for D.C. crew, best banding sets up in MD, PA.
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DC back to snow at 114
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Agree, huge movement on the GEPS. Big changes wrt comma shape and heaviest snows. Looking very euro tonight vs last several runs.
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CMC looks like a really big hit on WxBell with the kuchera! Snows for ~48 hours. pretty euro-esque... close to HECS territory
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Where is @North Balti Zen with the 00Z scorecard?
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@psuhoffman can I snag a link to those cmc images?
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I think 2016 was perhaps more anomalous in its modeling consensus than even its snowfall. It was unusual to say the least. I don't think we get that often, even in MECS/HECS
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That's not the end of the run. You're slacking man!
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The 10:1 map is pretty and all, but this right here is a tear-jerker... Sorry it's low quality, I had to shrink it a bit since it snows for 48 hours
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I'm going to sleep a lot better if this holds just one more day. The last 48 hours should be EASY compared to the 48 we're in now.
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I guess it depends on whose flakes you're talking about, but my math and DC's flakes looks like this: 12Z Euro onset was around hour 100 for DC 00Z Euro should be around 90
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That's tomorrow.
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It's some frontal passage on the 12Z GEFS Valid Feb 7 LOL. No member has anything close to that this weekend.
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this work?
