jaydreb

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days.

For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor.

From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all).    

This looks fun.  

GFS had it at 18z.  CMC had it at 0z.  Good signs.  

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

thank god the people reading this over in the morning get to see the same thing repeated three times, lol

I’ll let you and Yoda handle it.  

Light snow into DC at 150 with heavier stuff on the doorstep.  

Euro has something brewing at 144. 

Just now, yoda said:

Some nice hits for the CMC storm showing up on GEFS as well.  

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still snowing nicely at 156 across the region

CMC doing what GFS did at 18z?

Well, here’s the GFS’s chance to go 3 for 3.  

Yes please!  DC pummeled.

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

18 z GFS making some improvements at 500... Looks like it's about to go Boom at 138h

Looks familiar.  

Still a small signal around 1/22-23.

Some nice hits on the 0z GEFS around 1/22.  

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Somebody pony up the eps

EPS (10:1 ratio)

Don’t know about the accuracy of the model (probably none) but CFS is darn cold for the next month and more.  

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

If anyone could post a map with the warmest 950s that wold be great.  Curious to see where the warm nose gets to.

This what you’re looking for?

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW

I take and run.  

FWIW, GEFS finally catching on and shifting west again.  Still east of op but west of 12z. 

2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised.

The trends among nearly all of guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 coordior and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well.

 

 

You may end up right, but the current guidance (GFS and Euro) show a pretty significant event in the Shenandoah Valley.  

Lol. Dumpster fire.  

Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered.  Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us.  

Verbatim it’s probably 2-4/3-6” in DC metro before changeover.