jaydreb

All hail the king!

4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Ukie has quite a storm but a glancing blow 

That seems to be the consensus (minus the Euro).  

Looking at the individual GEFS members, I count about 8 that give DC a nice hit, and a handful of others that just barely miss.  At 18z there were pretty much no flush hits.  

CMC unchanged from prior run.  
 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z NAM compared to 18Z EURO

Here was GFS at 18z.  
  

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow

At first I thought it was a step back from 12z, but then I realized that’s the freakin’ mean!

GEFS and EPS are worlds apart at 114 hours.  
 

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

The GFS was too far east consistently with this last system, correct?

I don’t think so.  GFS nailed this last system.  GEFS was too east.  

3 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Given that we’re seeing major differences between the Euro and GFS by 84 hours, I don’t think we’re too far away from one folding to the other here.

Canadian is kind of in between.  Has a storm but it slides off to our south.  GFS is the most suppressed of the three.  

EPS at 120 should be money, right?

EPS thru 96 looks a lot like the op.  
 

GFS is the new Dr. No?  And Euro is the new DGEX?

FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend.  
 

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Has a weekend storm but it’s suppressed and on the Carolina coastline this run. Okay with me.

The 0z GEFS improved a bit for this time period.  There’s a signal for a coastal.  

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So did I...but all I needed to see was "GEFS indicating potential for a more amplified cyclone", lol

Basically if we want a storm, we want to see an amplified ridge over Alaska and deeper trough in the Central US (he uses hour +144).  He thinks the overall pattern might support a better storm than the GEFS mean is indicating.  

GEFS is cold.  A brief warm up this week, and then after Thursday DCA barely goes above freezing for at least a week.  

Just now, CAPE said:

Verbatim that run had a nice snowstorm with some deep winter after.

Yeah, no complaints if it goes down like that.  

NH obliterated on this run.  

GFS gonna get it done?

5 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Any reports from inside of dc under this band?

Dumping snow.  

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is that good or bad?

 Bad.  

2 minutes ago, Curlyq said:

NWS changed from 2-4 to 4-7

Where?

12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm.  Supports OTS/southern slider solution.  

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I always welcome a storm that looks suppressed on guidance until even the short-term -- a true snowstorm for the Carolinas is so rare and Virginia usually reaps a lot of the benefits.

Anyway, 06z GEFS. Right where I want it.

 

True but this is what it looked like the run before.  Anyway, this is all moot since we’ll get a new run in an hour.