jaydreb

Warmest panel on GEFS.  
 

GEFS rolling in.  


6z

1 minute ago, Disc said:

Ukmet is 18" at DC on Kuchera clown map. 

Pics or it didn’t happen.  

CMC looks a lot like GFS, maybe slightly better for the western suburbs.  Can’t ignore that all the major ops have almost the same solution.  

GEFS doesn’t have members riding as far west as the op but it’s definitely a bit west of its 18z run.  

18z

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, 12z EPS was better vs 18z.  I think its more likely this is suppressed or too far East/OTS than an I-81 runner.  Clearly everything is on the table 5 days out.

Weird with the ops running this further to the west that the EPS is pushing it the other way.  

If you can’t decide whether to worry about suppression or cutter, hopefully it means you’re in a good spot.  

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Comparison to 12z eps is what I meant

Yeah.  Sorry.  

 

18z EPS low positions look a lot like the GEFS and nothing like the op GFS.  

Pretty remarkable divergence.  The big L is the OP.  

Pretty wild.   Not one GEFS member showed this solution at 12z.  

Snow into DC at 126 but quickly turns over.  Remarkably similar to 12z.  

At 114 SLP in N. Miss.  

Looks pretty similar to 12z thru 84.  

Icon is a southern slider.  Nice storm for NC.  

Can we extrapolate an HECS from this?

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

That storm had the WAA snow come in like an absolute beast. The solutions  for the 3 big globals today certainly made me think that there would be a heavy front end snow dump verbatim. 

I recall about 10-12” IMBY before changing to sleet/drizzle.  

Time to bump the Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather thread.  

Sucks for DC metro, but just a stunning historical storm on the Euro.  Snowfall from Alabama/Georgia all the way up the Apps.
 

So are we worried about suppression or overamped?