jaydreb

I can wave to it as it passes my house.  

Lp passes just west of DC, a bit east and better than 0z.  

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time.

I guess because all the ops have been unrelentingly consistent with the track.  

FWIW at this point.  I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm?

I know it’s a broken record but GEFS coming in east of op.  

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Same general outcome wrt snow.

 

Meh.  I like this map better. 

I’ll take thump to dry slot and run with it.  

Just now, nj2va said:

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters?  GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?  

He did.  But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op.  Not sure whether that is still the case at this range.  

Weird to see increasing divergence on the GFS ensembles, but the op has been pretty rock solid for what seems like forever now.  

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Is this technically what the model is saying the "end result" will be though? Or is this just the total snowfall from before the changeover, then you use your imagination to figure out how much of it gets wiped away by rain? 

Total snowfall.  It doesn’t tell you what will actually be on the ground when all is said and done. There is also a “Snow Depth” map but I usually find it to be overly pessimistic.  

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That appears to be well west is 12z 

Agreed but there seems to be increased spread?  

If anything, 18z EPS is a bit west of 12z.  

12z

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Eps?

Looks unchanged from 12z but let me pull some maps.  

Pretty weenieish GEFS run.  

Accuracy will be higher at shorter time leads, so the fact that GFS at 72-84 seems to be an improvement over where it was at 12z is encouraging.  What happens when the storm gets to 100+ hours is still within the envelope of uncertainty.  

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance?

I’m not seeing it on WB.  

6z

Warmest EPS panel.  

Perhaps not surprisingly the EPS jogged west a bit from 6z.  
 

Still early, but gotta say I’m impressed how everything has been trending towards the GFS once again.  It was the first to sniff out this inland track and ensembles and European seem be playing catch up.  

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could you possibly post the next frame? Thanks! 

Pretty decent jump in snowfall map for DC on GEFS FWIW.  
 

6z