jaydreb

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I like the 10 minutes or so prior to the model run getting to the storm we have been watching and it being silence in here watching the run play out.

Then you get the "destroyed" from @clskinsfan or "next" from @Deck Pic and then all he'll breaks lose in here from happiness to miserary lol.

We are a bunch of sickos lol. 

 

“Incoming at 72”

”I think we’re gonna like this run”

”Snow into the cities at 60”

”DC destroyed at 54”

3k NAM shows essentially 3 hours of fairly heavy snow for DC metro (between 2 and 5 am) and then it’s over.  Totals about 2-3”. 
 

1 minute ago, gunny23 said:

we killed trying to get out to Canaan tonight - our friends who were over an hour ahead of us said trucks and cars were all over 48 including one semi sideways into a hill.   They were lucky to get behind a plow but still can't see anything - said it's the worse they have ever seen it.   I was looking forward to the hot tub while it was puking snow for our first storm in the new house - but we'll have to wait until the next one

What really sucks is our internet is down up there so we can't even watch the snow piling up on the cameras....snow will be still be there tomorrow....

Probably a smart move.  

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

22z HRRR and RAP are dry af.  hopefully they're missing something

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

The recent stuff you posted for DC proper on the mesos tells me this one won’t go well for us. That’s fine. Monday was sweet. I can live with a nice dusting that’s sweepable

The meso that was dry was HRRR?  I thought 3k NAM was decent.  

Arlington Public Schools caved for tomorrow.  An entire week without school.  

Seems like a reasonable map.  

1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said:

No worries, I will just back off and lurk.  I love snow and make one comment that isn't cool and this is the result?

It’s all in good fun.  This is just a weather board.  

We take.  
 

Pretty solid agreement among all the models.  

GEFS is still on the scent.  

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The GFS says pretty much nothing for late week, Euro this time the one with snow. Should note the GFS has more support in all honesty (ICON, UKMET)

GEFS is better than GFS OP.  

Blend the Euro and GFS and we’re good?

Power out in N. Arlington. 

It’s 5” on one side of my driveway and 7” on the other, so I’m going with 6”.  Power going off and on.  Heavy snow and wind.  

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I sure hope that’s a giant improvement because it looks awful here lol

It’s about the same as 12z.  

HRPDRPRPS

3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

ICON still running but definitely going to have a NW tick to totals. A bit more than the NAMs it looks like through hr19

Yes, a slight jog NW compared to the prior run and looks like the NAM.  

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Watching the water vapor loop and when should the tilt become negative if we want a snowy outcome? Currently looks mainly neutral if not a bit positive still. 

ninjaed 

I think a good rule of thumb that is it should be at least neutral leaning towards negative over the mouth of the Mississippi.  

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sheesh...almost no change on the NAM? I mean do ya start to move away from the globals at this close range? (I remember somebody saying to look more at the ensembles that the ops at short range). Maybe the Nam is more representative of a nina tendency? Lol

I’d love to see a good NAMming but I’d always rather have GFS/Euro on my side.  

12k NAM basically unchanged from 12z.  Gets some snow in DCA metro but brutal cutoff north of it.  

5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Are we going to ignore the shift south on the HRRR? I mean I'm good with that...

GFS gonna be a mauling.