jaydreb

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Just the upper part of my arm where they jabbed me. 

Same.  

1 minute ago, Mrs.J said:

So glad this alert has helped people. Also there is a MD Vaccine Hunters group on FB if you are on there. They are amazing at what they do. 

There is a NOVA group as well.  

Sweet!

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

Re: WFH.....our agency is taking this time as an opportunity to gut and redesign the interior of the bldg. The result is that WFH continues til the fall of '22. And, when we do return, if you're not someone that MUST be in the office you'll be hoteling and only in on a limited basis. 

That is epic.  Which agency is this?  I hope mine follows a similar path.  

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Estes, hills of Boulder, and Fort Collins in CO, Cheyanne to Scottsbluff in WY/NE. It's going to be wild to watch. Very dynamic system. 110+kt 5H jet max rolling through the base. It'll strengthen over SE CO late tomorrow into Sunday. It's the perfect combo for a Front Range special. 

Just spoke with my brother-in-law who lives in Niwot, CO, about 15 minutes N of Boulder.  They are expecting 2 feet on the low end, with potential for 3-4 feet.  Absolutely insane and if it wasn’t for this coronavirus I would be on a plane to chase.  

I feel bad for the Boulder weenies.  12z GFS took away 20” of snow.  

GFS is the new DGEX?  89” of snow?
 

12/16 - 1.5"

1/25 - .2"

1/31 - 2/2 - 5"

2/7 - 1.5"

2/10-11 - C

2/18 - .5";

2/22 - C

Total: 8.7"

38.898945, -77.153002

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor if we want to be jealous be jealous of N NJ. Once you hit N NJ and get some elevation and west of the NYC UHI the climo changes radically. Snow averages skyrocket from like 25” to 50”+ over 20 miles!  Ice fishing is a regular thing.  I thought about moving to the highland lakes area years ago before I got my job in Baltimore and settled down. They average like 65” and are guaranteed at least 40” almost every year except that absolute dreg awful 1/10 years and even then they manage to get like 25-30 usually.  You wanna pine for snow areas that’s worth it. Why be jealous of a place that gets like 3” more then you do?   Seriously it’s not like you would really be happy, think about it. In a typical year say you got 19” instead of 16”...I bet you would still be more focused on the fact somewhere 20 miles NW of Philly got 40”!  

Yeah, my sister lives in Morris County, NJ, and they do very well.   They often overperform with storms where they aren’t forecast to get much because they are primary beneficiaries of the north trend that we despise so much.  They got 30”+ from the Jan 28/Feb 1 storm. 

So I tried to shovel a section of the sidewalk and all that was left was a sheet of ice.  It’s more slippery than it was before.  Better just to leave it?

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb here...could it be we got a little unlucky with two things?

1) Cold air trapped on the other side of the globe from November, leading to real cold air source

2) TPV settling in a bad spot earlier this month, when we finally did have a cold air source

Too simplistic? (feel free to weigh in red taggers and others)

I’ll let @psuhoffman and the other experts weigh in but I think it’s a bunch of things.  It just seemed like even though the overall pattern was good, the little things just didn’t line up quite right when it counted.  At least not for the DC metro area.
 

1. We just missed a good snow in December.  I forget what went wrong there but it was close for us.  

2. We also just missed a MECS/HECS at the end of January when the coastal formed just a bit too late for our latitude.  That storm ended up dumping 30” of snow in NJ.  
 

3. We had the weird storm last week where one wave went north and the second wave went south, leaving DC in a snowhole.  It could have easily been a nice 3-6” event for us. 
 

I think there was also a storm that ended up suppressed when a Vort came out of nowhere to our NE to suppress the flow.  I don’t recall the details.  

If we hit one or two of these then suddenly this becomes a pretty good winter.  Seems like a combination of terrible luck and perhaps a slightly too warm background state.  
 

It’s too bad we couldn’t get a decent pattern this winter.  
 

Someone needs to make a fail video montage at the end of the winter with all the great digital snow runs within 72 hours set to music.  

“Memories...like the corners of my mind. Misty watercolor memories, of the way we were.”

Welp, it was fun while it lasted. 

33/14

1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. 

Yeah, my post about the Para was kind of tongue in cheek.  Most guidance does seem to be focusing in on 2-4/3-6 type deal for DC area, plus sleet and ice.  

5 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. 
Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there

Sorry, I edited it so snowhole after I saw that the precip was actually fairly decent.  Looks like a combination of precip and temp differences.  

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

A 'meeting of the minds' with a merge to the middle of both would be fine with me. Would make an almost area wide 5-10 event. I'll take that every time.

It’s weird.  The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area.  The Euro has the same area as a snowhole.  

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. 

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these?  This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.  

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Verbatim I would take the 3.5”, but it seems like the on the ground truth is always half of what the clownmaps show.  

18 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range.  5-10 over NW burbs.

 

 

I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA.     

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a win for the few but not for the many! I'll take the 3" sleet bomb I suppose. I've never seen anything like it so I'd be curious about the experience!

Pretty ugly snow wise for the cities.  Great if you like accumulating sleet though.