jaydreb

Storm of the Century type stuff. 

Gonna be 30” totals in GA/SC.  

Hurricane?

Arlington schools have caved.  

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It's more like 7am-12pm, looking at the instantaneous hourly precip on TT.

Either way, it should be ripping with good dendritic growth from about 8-10.

Yeah, you’re right.  I’m not good at reading the 3-hr precip maps.  

3k looks pretty wet for the metros.  Snows from 7am until like 3pm.  

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

I wasn't trying to give him a hard time. I just didn't understand why it matters whether there is a WWA or not. Not sorry for asking. 

Some of us need to get our bread and milk before the hoards get word of the impending doom.  Once the WWA goes out, the jig is up.    

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

The mean, fwiw, gives DCA around 0.2" of QPF...of course that could be influenced by a couple absurd members...I haven't looked

Yeah, it’s a little closer, but the final result still sucks for us.  It appears that the ops are agreeing on a solution.  

Some changes on CMC thru 60 as well at h5.  

Is this going to be WWA worthy, given the timing?

I approve this message. 
 

Well hopefully we can all agree that the GEFS was worse. Note that this includes about 1” from Thurs.  
 

Looks nice for the northern tier crew. 
 

Just now, mappy said:

somewhere in between will be my guess. Places that are cold enough as precip moves in should have no issue with sticking. places further south, it could be 33/34 and snow, not white rain, no road issues. 

Thx.  I’ll enjoy whatever falls but just thinking of school planning. Doesn’t take much to cause a panic down here.  

Are we thinking this is white rain type snow, or stick to the roads type snow?    Because it’s arriving right around the morning rush/school openings.  

Taken in isolation, the EPS isn’t bad.  It’s only slightly worse than 6z.  (Includes about 1” or so from Thursday).  
 

Mid-Atlantic weenies clicking on today’s Euro:

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is it over?

I guess it will be at 1:20?

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

If one is expecting an HECS as the Euro has depicted, then I agree that idea is trending the wrong way.  But I think we’re still in the game for a 3-6” type deal.  

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Is it too late to “deupgrade it” and go back to the prior version?

The bar is being set pretty high for this one.  

Please let the Euro be right.  The lp just sits and spins for like 10 hours.  

All hail the king!