jaydreb

What a massive storm around 1/20.l on GFS.  Verbatim would be heartbreak for my backyard.  Followed by temps in single digits.  

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

The typical 50 mile northward shift as we approach gametime would put DC in the max zone.  

59 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m excited about the 20-22, but wondering why people are thinking it will rain. Isn’t the pattern cold enough to support snow?

OPs have been spitting out rain solutions so people who just look at that think it will rain.  If you look at the ensembles you will see more snow solutions.  

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Just hoping we don’t get caught between the initial energy phasing out and a coastal taking over. Would absolutely suck to be the dry area in between two swaths of snow. 

This.  Only the out of its range NAM shows this now but if you’re looking for a way to fail this is it.  Initial precip runs to the north and coastal never really gets going or stays too far south.  

The mother of all cold shots at the end of the GFS run.  Almost the entire CONUS well below normal.  

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Yea, 7 times out of 10 we're living and dying by ratios to overcome lukewarm surface. I'll take .4 spread out over 24 hours with frozen ground versus .4 in 6 hours at 35 degrees. 2 completely different events.

This.   Not having to worry about temps and precip type is rare.  

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals.  2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD.  1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore.   Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H.  All snow everywhere north/west of that.

eta:  H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt.

Euro’s got this one handled from here on out.  

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area.

Hedging low is usually a good idea when it comes to snow inside the snowhole.  

It’s an improvement if you live in Northern Missouri.  Not so much for us.  

1 minute ago, Beachin said:

This is 12z 18z is way different 

Better or worse?

Edit:  TT not all the way through but looks better to me (for DC). 

Precip shield from Houston to Chicago at 84.  Impressive.  

Icon not looking great.  Thankfully it’s the Icon.  

Edit: I’m sorry, posted too soon.  TT panels were jumping around.  Looks fine FWIW.  

Just now, osfan24 said:

That's what I'm seeing as well.

Definitely trending away from the SECS/MECS we were seeing last night but a light event is still on the table.  

Pretty significant changes from 6z.  More consolidated, stronger system.  Less energy held back.  

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON is southern slider.  Dusting to DC.  SW VA over to Richmond a general 2-4.  I don't have H5 out that far yet but it looked more consolidated early on as DC said.

Looks to my untrained eye like NS comes down through NE and crushes it before it can gain more latitude.  

Icon is a disaster for everyone.  Hopefully it’s wrong. 

January 18-19 looking more interesting on GFS.  Still too warm verbatim but has been looking better.  

Can’t decide if I’m more worried about suppression or overamped/rain.  I guess that’s a good sign.  

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 is a good hit. A 1-2 punch. Might be double digits in dc. Lol

Well, only one way to go from here.  

Just now, Scraff said:

You should wish it wasn’t the CMC. Lol. 

True.  Let’s enjoy for the next two hours before Dr. No kills the party.  

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc looks just like the gfs. Lol

138 on the CMC is amazing.  Wish we were inside 5 days.  

Bitter cold on the backside of the storm.   Temps in the teens Monday morning.  

NS phases in a tad late and the storm explodes off LI and Mass.  Still a beautiful run.  Track is perfect.  

Please let the GFS be right.  

A week ago some were cancelling winter.  I’ll take my 1-3” and like it.