jaydreb

Acceptable.  

I guess a return to winter weather pattern would be nice but this would suck.  

Euro has a nor’easter that fringes us.  Seems about right.  

We’re back in the blue.  

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS not real gung ho with snowfall on the d10 potential but a number of mixed precip solutions are in the mix. Like I said yesterday, I'd be happy with a glaze of zr before it gets washed away. Yep, I'm that far down in the valley... lol

Bob’s deb phase lasted about 3 days.  

Lol, this thread is bipolar.  3 hours ago we were cancelling winter.  

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

I like the reds over AK and Greenland but don’t we want blues over us?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

We were in this same spot last year.  Things had sucked for a LONG time in January into Feb and then the SSWE and MJO both made positive changes...and the soi dropped and we got frustrated when the pattern looked like poo still...then a week later the changes started to show up but by then everyone had checked out because it would be March...and you know the drill.  This time if there is a similar 2 week delay we would see the changes start to impact the pattern the very end of January and have a pretty good pattern in February.  Maybe it isn't the blockbuster winter many were hopeful for a month ago...but if we could get a similar progress to what happened from about March 1 to April 15 last year...but get that from Feb 1 to March 15...that could end pretty darn good.  That pattern was pretty epic but it was just too late for us to really cash in.  The fact we got a pretty good event that late in March last year and were still tracking legit threats a week into April was evidence of a good pattern.  Give me that look in prime climo and I'll take my chances.  

Sounds a lot like 2015.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the differences but I do recall that we waited for what seemed like forever for a flip to a decent pattern.  It flipped in early Feb for NE and then mid-Feb for us and we went on a nice little run.  

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

We need things to line up to get a decent winter pattern.  We can survive just a mediocre-bad pacific if we have a -NAO.  We can survive a poor NAO if we have a great PAC.  But if either of those is horrendously bad — like the current state of the PAC — then we can close the blinds for a while.  In fact, a horrendous PAC is probably the worst thing we could have.  It’s a bigger killer than a +NAO.  

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

The mood of this thread depends on whether the GEFS just came out or the EPS just came out.  From 12-3 we are in GEFS-land.  From 3-7 we are stuck in the EPS reality.  Then after 7 we’re hopeful again. Until the next EPS.  

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is where I'm getting to.  If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th.  

It’s still possible that this winter won’t suck if we go on a heater in Feb and March and hit climo.   It took a while for things to flip in 2015 and no one would say that winter sucked.  What makes this winter so rough is the let down from the forecasts of a big winter.  December is supposed to suck but losing January is a kick in the face.  

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks good. LP has dropped south the the US/Can Border

 

Wouldn’t want to miss out on more rain.  

Here is the month by month breakdown:

• December: Three to four degrees warmer than average
• January: Two degrees warmer than average
• February: Three to four degrees colder than average
• March: We don’t make specific predictions for March, but we do predict it to be colder than average.

Here are the predicted snow amounts, by location:

• Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 18-24 inches
• Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery  counties: 22-32 inches
• Reagan National Airport (DCA):  16-20 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11 inch median)
• Dulles International Airport  (IAD): 24-30 inches (compared with a 22.0 inch average, 16 inch median)
• Baltimore-Washington International  Marshall Airport (BWI): 22-28 inches (compared with a 20.1 inch average,  15 inch median). 

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Trying to cut off at 150. Thermals are marginal but a decent run 

Rates will save us and storm will create its own cold air.  

Looks like positive changes on Happy Hour GFS for next week.  

Lol the ups and downs of this thread. 

Always 10 days away!

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sorry for the delay. Lol. Driving back from CT. 

Eps is now picking up on 3 chances centered around the 1st, 5th, and 7th and is really cold at the end of the run. Mean high temps are low to mid 30s from the 5th on. By far the coldest run I've seen and considering it's 13 days out, seeing mean high temps that low is an impressive signal.

I'll post temps and meteogram later but it's not a bad run at all considering the lead time. If we get 3 chances in a weeks time we usually score something. 

Meteograms. 

25 minutes ago, frd said:

Not sure what the real stats are now for verification on the main models, as I feel at this time they are having a hard time, but I believe the Euro has been doing best.  

They are 100% correct when they lock into a rainstorm at 10 days. They are 0% if they show snow.   

12z GFS has the NYE event.  Would be a nice storm to start the year.  Models have been keyed on this time period for days.  

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Hmm, comparing StormVista and Weathermodels.com EPS total snowfall from 00z (through 360H), SV shows 6” through DC while WM.com shows 2.5”.  Weenie handbook says hug the snowier model.  Interestingly enough, SV is usually the more conservative IRT snowfall totals.  

WxBell snowfall mean is 3” for most of DC and 2.5” in SE DC and DCA.  

I’ve seen this before. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z CMC has the NYE storm... but its rain down here.  Track is a bit NW of where we would like it... but its there.  And there is a HP in concert moving across Quebec... so maybe it would be frozen. 

GFS has it too but 850s are up in niagara falls.  

Meteograms show models picking up on increased snowfall potential from NYE and beyond.