jaydreb

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range. 

The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right?  Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo.  

15 minutes ago, psurulz said:

Looks like the CMC has something cooking in the GOM on the 27th

Somehow how rains on us even though it passes well to our SE in the heart of winter.  

Seems I am in the same range as most.  13” on the season so far.  

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'd like to know if this pattern really is meteorologically possible

The -NAO so strong that it encompasses the CONUS.  

Rain all the way to Canada.  

The Thursday deal misses but GFS snows on us Saturday.  

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Next weekend is when it starts getting good. Both eps and gefs are picking up on it. Cmc has a ns vort dig for oil and turn up the coast and another vort on its heels. I'm not stressed about the follow up deal. We need the cold entrenched first. It's coming. Basically a lock now. 

Looking forward to getting some cold. Tired of the rain. 

GFS has a cutter for Thursday now.  CMC looks identical.  

We are seeing some pretty extreme, potentially historic solutions being modeled.  

Lol.  Suppression for Panama City.  Congrats Orlando?

GFS has a 1060 high at 240.  

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yes, 0.8” here so far.

Cool. I’ll round up to an inch.  

Anyone else in Arlington seeing about .5 - 1.0”?

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

ever since I got out of APS they've been the wimpiest school district in the area. they've been 2-hour delayed since 6:00pm today I think.

fyi, for those who want to know why, they literally had a policy change because of the mid-November storm where they screwed the pooch. Now any snow pretty much at all means they preemptively 2-hour delay.

This.  In November they had a regular day when they should have closed.  Roads were a mess, buses were crashing, etc.  Now the new policy is to call a delay the night before so they can reassess in the morning whether to close.  

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh not enough blocking 

They are running out of colors.  

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji

After fading the 18z gefs is resurrecting the potential for the storm next week to do something. Mean h5 pattern doesn't start looking good until after the 26t-27th so it would be a bonus storm if it works out.

Overall the 18z run qualifies as happy hour. 

Looks solid but I prefer this one.

The block has returned to the GFS.  

My bar is .5”.  Anything more is gravy.  

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but the GFS/fv2 operationals never actually flip the pattern to have a flip back.  We are in what is supposed to be the "transition" to a blocking pattern right now, but as isotherm and HM have said it's being delayed and destructively interfered with by the MJO wave.  The ops though revert right back to a pacific jet driven pattern before we ever fully get into a better pattern.  Remember, places north of Baltimore still have not had any snow and coastal areas are likely not to have much the next 10 days...if the pattern reverts right back to a fully crappy pattern after only a kinda sorta crappy pattern that isnt really a flip back...it would be more like a total fail straight through to me.  

There is always a path to failure but the ensembles are still showing a path to victory so for now we can take comfort in that.  The reality will probably lie somewhere in between an epic pac puke disaster and historic 2010-ish blocking.  Many of us are just one more decent storm away from calling this a solid winter.  

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. 

Thankfully we banked this past storm or there would be lots of meltdowns (me included)!  A good storm buys a couple of weeks of crap.  

Is that a triple phaser at the end of the GFS run?  Not sure I know how to spot one.  

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up

Is that a 15” mean in the next two weeks?!

Edit:  Looks like DCA’s is only 12”.

NAM calling for a foot of snow was laughed at but wasn’t far off.  Even the Euro was underdoing the snow until the very end when Kuchera was giving us about 8-9”.  

Measured about 10.5”.   Didn’t use measuring board so it could have been more.  

Just now, abergman said:

I'm within a mile or two of four corners (inside the beltway), and I just measured 9" at 7 PM. Maybe compaction?

Could be.  If you take a single measurement at the end of the storm it will be lower than the total accumulated snow.  You’ll actually be measuring snow depth instead.