TJW014

Said f*** it and made a map. For the most part, discounting RGEM/GGEM. I believe it is too strong/amped and will cave to the SE. If it doesn't, a lot of us are going to be unhappy. Pretty confident on a rain/mix at the start for the NJ Coastal Plain (more so here) and some for E Long Island too. Otherwise, I went with a blend of GFS, Ukie, and Euro. Think it comes a bit farther west and lightly stronger/juicer than the Ukie/Euro, but not to GFS/GEM amounts. Overall think it's a good 3 - 4 - 5 inch event for most of us, except for extreme south/east spots. Given the speed of this thing, I think the upper limit is 7, maybe 8 inches somewhere just NW of 287. Aside from the coast, ratios should be increasing as the storm progresses, highest farther NW, up to 15:1. Feel free to roast, criticize, wring me by the neck, etc.

Saquon and the tush push will be neutered.

One of the reasons why the metro area is such a difficult spot for everyone to cash in. What's good for one can screw someone else.

I'd be ecstatic with the Ukie run

Paste job for here

There's the inevitable shift northwest that always happens

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

Still unchanged from my view of this being a rainstorm for coastal Monmouth/Ocean County + Eastern LI. Thinking the gradient line sets up along I-95/278/Belt Pkwy

Reggie with a rainstorm for NYC with the briefest changeover to snow for an hour at the end.

NAM at this range is about as useful as my girlfriend trying to decide what she wants for dinner.

I'm going to be the Debbie Downer I am and say that I expect this to be more of a rain event than a snow event here. The last place I want to be is already flirting with the R/S line 3 days out, especially given the inevitable final adjustment northwest that we always get. I fully expect a changeover to snow as the low pulls away but not after 85% of the precipitation fell as rain. This will probably be one of those Congrats Freehold Twp events

Virga overhead so far

22" out on IBSP from that one. Just my luck that I was in FL during that one

Snow, sand and Sea collide at the shore.

Barnegat Bay has frozen over. Last time I remember was in January 2018.

Gusting to 45-50 already on the barrier island

Already is.

Got the wood stove going. Gonna take a while to get some heat going upstairs.

Just blows my mind it always goes out for something pointless. Not going to get any better as more folks are connecting their cars to the grid too.

JCP&L sucks. This is the 3rd time in under two weeks that half of the town is without power. On one of the coldest nights of the year as well. Completely unacceptable.

The National Park Service account has become one of my favorites to follow. Perfect blend of humor but also informative at the same time. Many state accounts do the same thing (NJGov) is pretty hilarious too. NWS can do it too. Just need an equal blend of humor and legitimate info. Personally I think their post was perfectly fine. It gave me a good laugh.

Lots of old houses along Barnegat Bay. Many built in the late 1800s - Pre WW2 My home was built in 1909. Rock wool "insulation" (if you want to call it that) on the first floor. Nothing on the second floor. Cold winter nights in the teens it'll be in the 50s inside. Wood stove heats up downstairs, baseboard upstairs In the summertime, upstairs never drops below 80 degrees, even with window A/C.

CMC nudged north about 50 miles. Still a miss for the city

Under one final band. Moderate/Heavy snow. Big flakes. Could get an additional .25" or so

Good run for N/W of I-95.