excessive rain is what we do best so you're probably on the right track, just like that NAM comes in 2-3 across metro
the GOES16 IR loop of the IA diving SE and merging is pretty slick, especially as the remnant is not being lifted back north into the main MCV
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-midwest-15-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined