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largetornado

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Everything posted by largetornado

  1. largetornado
    https://x.com/Kentuckyweather/status/1923201576534978717 South illinois, indiana, and all of kentucky appears to have a rough day ahead. Broyles is on duty. i expect a pink sharped for bottom left quarter of this image
  2. largetornado
    I wouldnt be suprised to see a storm develop along the indiana/oh border. cap seems to erode as the day goes on as an arc of 500mb vorticity traverses NE.
  3. largetornado
    Red Sharpie for tomorrow. Wind Driven Mod. 10/45/30 all hatched.
  4. largetornado
    Satellite as of 12:05. Good pockets of CU developing. 15Z HRRR has pretty significant cell right over Chicago metro. Could be a very costly hail storm if that happens.
  5. largetornado
    MODS, given the increasing severe weather threat on friday across the southern portion of the subforum, can we add 5/16 to the title?
  6. largetornado
    Makes sense. Some of the parameters look like a pseudo triple point. Last night I was really liking n Indiana. Cool to see models supporting that idea
  7. largetornado
    0z HRRR struggles to initiate any convection.
  8. largetornado
    Pretty solid EML showing in the NAM. Holographs are a little wonky (especially eastern fringe of risk area) but if the cap breaks, I could see a moderate risk level ceiling but that is a stout EML for this area. Large destructive hail is definitely in the cards though for anything that develops. LCLS are a tad high as well
  9. largetornado
    Starting a thread on this as the parameter space is fairly impressive with cape values exceeding 3500. looks like there will be an EML present which should keep convection limited and the 500-850 crossovers are favorable for discrete.
  10. largetornado
    Latest data does suggest that corridor may be the winner. Im liking between lafayette and indy right now.
  11. largetornado
    Makes no sense that we get a D2 enhanced when sunday was a D2 enhanced and this is a much more potent setup. Unfortunately, this confuses the public and they will think its the same as sunday which was a relative bust to most people.
  12. largetornado
    While the severe threat is noteworthy, i feel like the flooding potential for the southern subforum could be catastrophic. 6-10" of rain along the ohio river from missouri to cincinnati.
  13. largetornado
    Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan.
  14. largetornado
    GFS sounding for illinois at 348 hours. not really that note worthy...but the one thing that caught my eye are the lapse rates. sign of things to come?
  15. largetornado
    Rumblings of a multi day severe setup around march 4th starting the the plains with a 991 GL cutter the following day. I have a gut feeling we are in for a nasty severe wx season.
  16. largetornado
  17. largetornado
    Southern portion of the subforum is looking at a significant Winter storm tuesday into wednesday. NWS Louisville already has posted winter storm watches for 4+ inches. Models are consistent on a heavy band of 6-10" snow totals along the I71 corridor or just south. I anticipate this will trend a little bit more towards the north but we will see.
  18. largetornado
    Had about 9" in cincy. 1/2" of sleet/freezing rain in between two 4-5" layers light and fluffy snow. Without the ice, easily a foot plus storm.
  19. largetornado
    HRRR snow fall. Lol and the storm isnt even over in this run.
  20. largetornado
    Can anyone explain why the foreign models (EURO, GPDS, UKMET) have the heaviest snow band south of the ohio river whereas the American models have the heaviest snow band tracking near i70?
  21. largetornado
    That hotspot will pull Milton North. $50 says landfall is 2 Miles NW Tampa Bay.
  22. largetornado
    Update to my last post…it was not a storm chaser killed near Corning. Death toll appears to be 4 in greenfield and 1 north of corning
  23. largetornado
    Preliminary reports indicating a storm chaser was among the fatalaties
  24. largetornado
    Yesterday had more tor reports than Monday
  25. largetornado
    Rap sounding from northwest Ohio. What prevented a mode significant tornado?
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